The commentators of the Lebanese newspaper Al Nashra claim today (Thursday) that the reactions of Hezbollah and Iran to the assassinations of senior officials will be fundamentally different from each other and it is even likely that they will not occur at the same time, since the equation on each front is completely different.
According to the publication, Hezbollah’s response is expected to be more significant, as it embodies within it “equations accumulated since 1967”. In contrast, the Lebanese commentators estimate that Iran’s response will be limited because “Iran will not give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an opportunity to expand the war and drag the US into it.”
Al Nashra commentators explain that “Hezbollah’s calculations are different from the Iranians’ calculations. Israel did not recognize the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, and the Iranian delegation stated to UN officials that its response to Israel would respect international law, meaning it would not bomb civilian targets.”
The commentators also added that Iran has a significant interest in being involved in negotiations with the US and portraying itself as the country that led to a ceasefire in Gaza, a move that could preserve its prestige in the region. It is implied from the commentators’ words that the US has significant levers of pressure and “profitable offers” that it can make to Iran on In order to prevent her from responding, or to moderate her response.
In addition, the Lebanese commentators clarified that the deal and ceasefire in Gaza will have significant consequences on the front between Hezbollah and Israel. So if the diplomatic efforts in Doha bear fruit, it is likely that Hezbollah’s response will be significantly moderate. It was emphasized that the reaction is inevitable, but its strength is a factor that can be influenced.