In two months, the electoral panorama has completely changed. It was precisely the first of the scheduled debates, on June 27, that changed the game board. The very poor performance of Joe Biden, who was seeking re-election, revealed his cognitive decline and triggered his withdrawal from the presidential race three weeks later. Harris’ entry into the race has restored vigor and enthusiasm to the Democratic side. But elections cannot be won with good vibes alone, especially since at the helm is Donald Trump, a man who always goes on the offensive and knows how to take advantage of adverse situations.
That is why the debate on Tuesday 10th is crucial. The momentum that Harris has gained in recent weeks, and which has been reflected in the polls, could deflate if she allows Trump, who is used to these struggles, to win the initiative and not let her clearly present her government proposals. It will also be the first time that many Americans will listen to Harris and see if she is, in fact, up to the task. We must not forget that she was nominated without having been chosen in a primary election, so she will have to prove with arguments that she is the right person to succeed Joe Biden.
For Dr. Nevena Trajkov, a professor of Political Science at Jacksonville University (Florida), Harris comes to the debate with a strong momentum and a lot of enthusiasm. “However, debates are specifically designed to influence undecided voters. According to my analysis, approximately 18% of those who voted for Trump in 2020 no longer support him, and a similar percentage may not be sure about voting for him again. If Harris can maintain her momentum and effectively reach these voters during the debate, she can achieve good results,” she explains to El Comercio.
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Susan Stokes, director of the Chicago Center on Democracy at the University of Chicago, predicts that the former president will be aggressive during the debate and will once again resort to lies and exaggerations in his speech. “The race is close and will be until the end. But she now has the momentum and has been stealing attention from Trump, who seems to be somewhat desperate but not defeated,” she told this newspaper.
Sparring for practice
As part of her preparation, the vice president is reducing her public appearances in favor of special sessions with her team of advisers. It has emerged that a lookalike of the former president is helping her with incisive questions and answers so that she can visualize what the real debate will be like.
A major contribution to his preparation is the advice from Biden himself and Hillary Clinton, who have debated Trump before and know his strategies.
Even though Harris is coming into the debate in high spirits, many Democrats are warning that overconfidence can be detrimental. “We shouldn’t think that somehow Kamala Harris is much more capable of winning a debate than Donald Trump,” Illinois Governor JB Pritzker told CNN this week. If Democrats should have learned anything since 2016, it’s that Trump cannot be underestimated.
Trump, for his part, has said that he does not need a sparring partner to practice. In fact, he has never used that resource, as he has always said that he only follows his intuition. However, his advisers are meeting with him to look for Harris’ weakest points, such as immigration, the economy and mining.
Trump’s campaign recently recruited Tulsi Gabbard, a former congresswoman from Hawaii who ran in the Democratic primary in 2020 and was in a debate with Harris when she also tried to run.
The strategies
Although Trump has more experience in electoral debates, it should not be forgotten that Kamala Harris has been attorney general of the state of California and, according to her advisors, she will take advantage of that experience, taking into account that her rival has been convicted by the courts and has several ongoing trials.
DATA
- Vice President Harris’ last debate was in 2020 as Joe Biden’s running mate on the re-election campaign. She debated former Republican Vice President Mike Pence on that occasion.
- The debate, organized by ABC, will take place on Tuesday 10th at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, one of the six key states that could determine the election.
“On the debate stage, the electorate will be her jury and she has the task of presenting them with convincing arguments against Trump, who has a vulnerable record,” Trajkov said.
For Stokes, Harris cannot spend the entire debate responding to Trump on every single thing he says. “She is trying to walk a fine line. On one hand, she is disparaging him, but on the other, she is emphasizing the danger of a second Trump administration.”
Trajkov also believes that Trump’s strategy could be to dominate Harris’ speaking time by putting her on the defensive, “forcing her to spend time refuting his claims and accusations.”
“She should employ a disciplined three-part strategy: first, prepare concise responses in advance to quickly address Trump’s predictable tactics and accusations; second, respond directly and substantively to the moderator’s question; and third, link the Trump administration’s failures to the specific issue being discussed,” he explains.
In 2024, with Biden’s exit from the race, it was proven that debates can change history. And this debate could show an angry Trump or one who is sticking to his strategy of making hurtful statements, while Harris could turn the stage into a trial or stumble and forget her script. The competition, in reality, has only just begun.