The oil company YPF will communicate in the coming days that will partner with Pan American Energy (PAE) and the Norwegian Golar LNG in its Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) production and export project, which will come into operation in 2027.
YPF will have 15% of the company Southern Energy, whose owners are Golar LNG with 10%; the british Harbour Energy con 15%; Pampa Energy with 20%; and PAE with the rest, which today is 55% and would rise to 40%.
But YPF’s strategic plan to place Vaca Muerta gas in the rest of the world is modified in recent weeks. It is that based on the new market conditions, the president and CEO of the company, Horacio Marinbegan to think about the possibility that Argentina would have 4 boats of gas liquefaction, instead of the original 2.
In that case, with a capacity to liquefy between 70 and 80 million m3 per day (MMm3/d) of natural gas by 2030, the national energy industry may not need to build a plant onshore -on land-, which demands larger investments and a huge sunk cost, against the rental of smaller boats.
As far as he could know ClarionYPF is going to join the PAE project, which will cool the gas leaving the Austral Basin to 161 degrees below zero during the summer months (October to April of each year) – the offshore in Tierra del Fuego – to compress its volume about 600 times and facilitate its maritime transport through the Hilli Episeyo ship.
From there, some 11.5 million m3 of gas per day will be able to be exported firmly (non-interruptible) and the negotiation is now to analyze the possibilities of these volumes being sustained 365 days a year, instead of only during the season. summer, which is of low local demand.
The main gas producer in Argentina (and second largest operator, behind the French TotalEnergies) is negotiating with Golar LNG to bring another ship by 2027, which will advance the country’s production capacity and will require the construction of an exclusively “dedicated” gas pipeline to that project.
And it has the idea that between 2029 and 2030 two more extra vessels will be added to liquefy the gas, each with a capacity of 20 MMm3/d.
Originally, the intention to build a plant could add 80 MMm3/d to the two ships, bringing the country’s LNG production capacity to 120 million m3/day and implying almost doubling the current gas production in Argentina.
But The construction of a plant, which was planned for 2031, requires at least 5,000 million dollars in investments, with a high risk due to the economic conditions of the country and international prices. There are even those who see this plant as feasible only by 2035, while the possible offtakers (buyers) like Brazil, India, Japan or Germany need the gas as soon as possible.
With the departure from Petronas which is not yet confirmed but is almost a fact, the Anglo-Dutch Shell appeared as a possible partner and buyer in a contract worth $140 billion over 20 years, although several steps are still missing.
In any case, the final investment decision (FID) will come in 2025 for the first ships. Next year, the country’s entire energy industry will work to find buyers with long-term contracts, which will make it possible to search for international financing with a risk associated with the project.
The sector believes that with gas at 8 dollars per million BTU in port it can be competitive with the United States, although there are executives who maintain that it needs to be profitable at US$ 6.50 when leaving Argentina – well below US$ 3 in the Vaca Muerta wells.