“Habemus prime minister in France?” With Emmanuel Macron’s government in a deep political and institutional crisis and all parties gathered at the Elysée palaceWith the exception of Insoumise France, the presidential decision is to try to find a premier this Monday and announce it on Tuesday.
The head of state received at the Elysée the presidents of the parliamentary groups de Liot at 9. The communists entered at 10 a.m. and then the environmentalists at 11 a.m. He hopes to be able to announce the choice of the future prime minister on Tuesday.
“The President of the Republic is listening today (this Monday) to the political forces and groups that agree to come to discuss with him. He will propose, perhaps during the day or tomorrow, a method,” said Fabien Roussel, national secretary. of the PCF. “What matters now is whether your team is prepared to perform,” he said.
Environmentalists discovered other presidential intentions. Marine Tondelier, national secretary of the Ecologists, evoked “two interesting lessons”, at the end of her meeting with Emmanuel Macron at the Elysée.
First of all, “the president of the Republic He understood that he had to stop doing what he wanted and rush to make appointments that would lead to censorship,” according to the environmentalist.
Then “he repeated on several occasions that the solution could no longer depend or not on an agreement with National Regrouping“, stated Marine Tondelier, while the extreme right had put Michel Barnier’s government “under surveillance.”
In recent days, Emmanuel Macron insisted on his desire to build “a common basis of non-censorship,” which would allow a government to resist until the end of its mandate in 2027.
He must get a prime minister that it is not vetoed by the ultra-left of France Insoumise nor by the Lepenists of the National Regrouping, who unite in the votes of censure. He does not dare to name a socialist government, who went to the Elysée very worried. They offer a socialist premier, a government for all, with minimum agreements and the participation of environmentalists, communists and the republican right, in a pact so that he is not censured, and can finish his mandate.
Trapped, but with a way out?
Macron is trapped, with a conservative right and a macronism that does not have enough votes to keep him in power, after his arbitrary dissolution of the legislative assembly that left him without a majority.
He cannot dissolve the Legislative Assembly until July. The risk is that the National Regrouping and France Insoumise, which refused to participate in the political dialogue, will veto his government, until forcing him to resign.
That is the scenario that the republican political parties in France want to avoid. They feel that the country is in a serious institutional, political, leadership, and financial crisis. But Macron He is not willing to make “mea culpa.” Until now he has rejected a government with the socialists, who were the ones who invented him as a politician and secretary general of the Elysée, under the presidency of François Hollande.
Bayrou appears as favorite
The most heard candidate for premier is François Bayrou, a centrist and president of Modem, who entered Macron’s initial government, had judicial problems and then separated, but without breaking with the president. In his favor Bayrou has the conditions of a race policy. Consensual, good negotiator, literature professor, legislator with extensive experience and known to all political forces and Catholic. He is the mayor of Pau, the city in the Pyrenees, the Beaen region, where he comes from.
“If we managed to publish the name on Monday night, we would be very strong. Better say Tuesday,” said one of the Elysée officials.
On Wednesday, the president’s entourage assured that the prime minister’s name would be known the next day. Three days later, white smoke has still not appeared over the Elysée because Macron dedicated his weekend to the reopening of Notre-Dame de Paris and the reception of foreign leaders. A way to polish a worn-out mandate, which has tired the French.
In recent days, Emmanuel Macron – who is not in favor of a new dissolution of the national assembly – insisted to his interlocutors on his desire to build “a common basis of non-censorship”, which allows a government to resist until the end of his mandate.
He doesn’t want the PS
Emmanuel Macron does not frankly believe in the participation of the PS in the government. At most think of his benevolence so as not to censure. Difficult equation, therefore, to expand the common base without undermining the National Regrouping. Marine Le Pen has clearly indicated that will not abstain from voting again on a new motion of censureif its red lines are not taken into account.
So how to do it? “The PS has evolved, as have the conservative Republican LR, so things are going well. The center of gravity of all this is the central block,” deciphered a source close to the president. For Emmanuel Macron, “we must unite around a programmatic platform to avoid some sharp topics,” as he explained to those he spoke with during the Notre Dame ceremonies.
The New Popular Front, which brings together Rebellious France, the socialists, the communists and the environmentalists, threatens to implode.
On the left, two lines have clashed since the fall of Michel Barnier. On the one hand, socialists, environmentalists and communists call, to varying degrees, for debate. On the other hand, France Insoumise by Jean Luc Mélenchon brandishes the threat of the explosion of the New Popular Front (NFP).
If the socialists join the future government, “the New Popular Front will continue without them. We refuse to govern with this right-wing bloc adrift,” warned Jean-Luc Mélenchon, in an interview with the Italian and Spanish newspapers La Repubblica. The Country.
According to the head of state, it is also important to think about the organization of legislative elections “in the future” to avoid the dispersion of votes against the candidates of France Insoumise and National Rally. He also understood on Friday that the Republicans did not look favorably on proportional representation, the workhorse of the president of the MoDem, François Bayrou.
“This weekend there has been radio silence,” confesses a follower of François Bayrou who, at this point. “I fear the wait will last.”continues the same interlocutor. Above all, because the president can still change his mind.
“If I can help get out of all this, I will,” responded François Bayrou, when questioned by several media this Sunday.
A consensus candidate
Reason for presidential delay: the absence of a natural and consensual candidate. Gabriel Attal’s party has major reservations about the Minister of the Armed Forces, Sébastien Lecornu. The conservatives of LR and, more specifically, the Sarkozy camp continue to consider that Bayrou betrayed the right in the last presidential elections.
If Emmanuel Macron carefully observes what is happening on the left and on the right, to see who is willing to work with the government, at least not to censor it, must decide quickly. France must have a government before the end of the year.