Sharp declines on Wall Street; Oil at $108, Meta drops 6%

19:02

United States President Donald Trump said today that Iran previously allowed ten oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz this week, as a gift to the United States. According to Trump, the move was intended to show the United States “that we are real, stable and present there,” during a cabinet meeting.

His comments provide an answer to questions raised two days earlier, when Trump first stated that Iran “gave us a gift” related to oil and gas, without going into further details. Trump claimed this after emphasizing that the US “has very significant talks with Iran,” although Tehran has denied that any direct talks have taken place.

18:24

stock Meta Platforms (Facebook) Falls after two consecutive legal rulings that stated that the company is responsible for harming young people through its products.

In one case, a jury in New Mexico found that Facebook and Instagram did not adequately protect young people from dangers such as inappropriate solicitations, sexual content and human trafficking. A day later, a California jury found that both Meta and Google (via YouTube) were negligent by running products that harm children and teens and failing to warn of the risks.

The stock is on track for its lowest close since last April.

The main concern in the market is that these rulings will open the door to a wide wave of lawsuits, which may force Meta and similar companies to make significant changes to their products – which may harm growth and profitability in the future.

18:03

Wall Street retreated today while conflicting messages between the US and Iran increase the uncertainty surrounding the prospect of talks that will end the conflict in the Middle East.

The Nasdaq is down 1.4%, the Dow Jones is down 0.5% and the S&P 500 is down 0.7%.

Oil prices are soaring again and this time by 6% to the level of 108 dollars per barrel, American oil contracts rose by 3.5% to 94 dollars.

With only two days left for the American ceasefire in attacks on power plants in Iran, the parties are still divided about the possibility of a ceasefire, and President Trump sharpened the tone when he warned Iran to “take it seriously” and reach an agreement before it is “too late”.

At the same time, fears of a recession in the US are growing, when the rise in oil prices threatens to disrupt economic activity and burden consumers who are already under pressure, while the markets are trying to assess how much the Fed will take into account the spike in energy prices in its interest rate decisions. Data published by the Ministry of Labor showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits was 210,000 in line with expectations.

17:20

Government bond yields in the US and Europe rose on Thursday, as the uncertainty surrounding the war with Iran returns the focus to inflationary concerns, mainly through energy prices.

The markets are already pricing in a change in the approach of the central banks: about an 81% chance of an interest rate increase by the Bank of England next month (compared to ~65% the day before), an expected cumulative interest rate increase of about 75 basis points by the Central Bank of Europe by the end of 2026, a sharp change compared to the expectation of stability before the war and regarding the Fed, the market currently estimates a stop, with interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range as well in 2026.

The narrative is that an increase in energy prices (due to the geopolitical risk) could permeate the economy through transportation, production and consumer prices, so the central banks are less in a hurry to lower interest rates, and even consider raising them.

16:20

The software company we stone which provides a platform for business travel management, published yesterday (Wednesday) after trading reports to summarize the fiscal year that ended in January. Navan shares soar.

The company concluded the year with a growth of 30.8% to revenues of 537 million dollars (of which 178 million dollars in the last quarter), an increase in the net loss to 398 million dollars and a significant reduction of the net loss on a Non-GAAP basis, to 328 thousand dollars. The free flow turned from negative to positive in the amount of 14.8 million dollars.

In the current financial year, Navan expects a growth of 24% to revenues of 866-874 million dollars, with a Non-GAAP operating profitability of 7%, compared to 5% last year.

Another Israeli that is soaring today is Maniyat Radcom And this after an activist movement was forged in the old Israeli technology company.

Shareholders who together own 19.3% of the share capital in Redcom sent a letter to the board of directors with a demand for a meeting to discuss the removal of five incumbent directors and the appointment of three others in their place.

The interesting point in the story is that among the investors who express dissatisfaction with the state of the company, there are also the heirs of the founder and former chairman of Radcom, the late Zohar Zisafel, his children Dr. Michael Zisafel and Khalil Zisafel, and among the directors they are seeking to replace is their father’s former partner, Rachel (Hali) Ben-Nun.

Zisapel’s children, who became interested in Redcom after the father’s death, joined the cooperation during the activist campaign with the investment company Value Base led by Victor Schmerich and Ido Neuberger. The Zisafels together own 14% of Redcom and Valio Base 5.3%.

15:30

Wall Street opened lower, amid rising oil prices and investors’ continued monitoring of developments in the Middle East.

The Nasdaq is down 1%, the Dow Jones is down 0.8% and the S&P 500 is down 0.7%.

Oil prices rose and put pressure on the stock markets: Brent contracts rose by 3.8% to $106.07 per barrel, and American oil contracts rose by 3.5% to $93.45.

Trump warned in the post that Iran must “get serious soon before it’s too late,” and even criticized the Iranian negotiating team, which he said “wants” to reach an agreement. On the other hand, Iran’s foreign minister stated that the leadership is examining an American proposal to end the war, but has no intention of holding direct talks with the US.

At the same time, the Gulf countries issued a joint statement condemning the Iranian attacks on their energy infrastructures, and made it clear that they are ready to defend themselves.

Despite the tense background and conflicting messages surrounding the possibility of an agreement, Wall Street is coming off a positive trading day – which puts the major indexes on track for a positive week, even amid the geopolitical uncertainty.

13:50

The sentiment in the global markets continues to be negative, against the background of the great uncertainty regarding the continuation of the war against Iran. The Frankfurt Stock Exchange falls by about 1.5%, the London Stock Exchange weakens by about 1.4% and the Paris Stock Exchange loses its value by about 1%. The declines in futures contracts on Wall Street are deepening a little and the leading indices are trading in declines of up to 1%.

A little while ago, President Trump referred to the contacts with Iran in a post he published on his social network, Truth Social, and wrote that “they should start getting serious soon before it’s too late, because once it happens, there will be no going back and it won’t be pretty!”.

11:50

Trading in Europe continues to be conducted with falling rates. The DAX index is now falling by about 1.6%, the FTSE is losing its value by about 1.3% and the KAC has weakened by about 1.1%. At the same time, futures on Wall Street are down by up to 0.9%.

Oil prices also continue to climb and rise at a rate of over 3%. Brent crude is currently trading around $106 per barrel, while US crude is trading around $93.

10:50

Europe

European stock markets open the day with price drops, while investors have to deal with a high level of uncertainty surrounding the talks to end the war between the US and Iran. The DAX index falls by about 1.3%, the POTSI weakens by about 0.9% and the KAC loses its value by about 0.6%. The futures contracts on Wall Street are also trading down by up to 0.8%.

CNBC reports that the markets are having trouble deciphering contradictory statements from Washington and Tehran over the past two days. The US claimed that there were talks about a peace plan it offered to Iran, but the latter denied any direct interaction with it on the matter.

During the night, the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump said in closed conversations in recent days that he wants to end the conflict in the coming weeks and avoid slipping into an “eternal war”. According to the report, Trump is urging his advisers to stick to the 4-6 week schedule. The White House is planning a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in mid-May, with the expectation that the war will come to an end by then.

Asia

In Asia, the stock markets closed with significant declines. The stock exchange in Hong Kong fell by about 1.9%, the Tokyo Stock Exchange lost its value by about 0.5%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell by about 1.1% and the Seoul Stock Exchange weakened by about 3.2%.

Wall Street

Wall Street closed in the green yesterday, amid reports of the peace plan proposed by President Trump for Iran – although the leading indices ended the day well away from their intraday highs. After opening the day with gains of over 1%, by the end of the trading day the Nasdaq climbed about 0.8%, the S&P 500 advanced about 0.6% and the Dow Jones rose about 0.7%.

Most of the industry indices of the S&P 500 traded in positive territory, with gains led by cyclical and more defensive sectors. The raw materials sector climbed about 2% and was the strongest, followed by the Consumer Discretionary sector, with an increase of about 1.2%. The health and industrial insurance sectors advanced by about 0.9% and about 0.7%, respectively. On the other hand, the energy index weakened by about 0.5%, against the background of the decline in oil prices in the world.

The IT sector also supported the gains and strengthened by about 0.5%. Among the stocks that stood out positively can be found Nvidia , AMD , Amazon andIntel . The stock of chips ARM jumped at a double-digit rate, after the company launched yesterday a new AI processor – AGI CPU. This is the first time in the company’s history that it produces its own physical chip, after in recent decades it sold its architecture to other companies, who will actually produce the chips. Today it was reported that the company expects its new chip alone to bring in $15 billion by 2031.

Citi Bank noted that Arm’s announcement marks “the most significant change in the company’s history. CNBC reported that according to Citi’s analysts, while the company’s move toward chip manufacturing was a fairly open secret, the news of a fully developed server chip, the support from giant companies such as Meta and OpenAI, and bullish revenue forecasts led to a positive surprise for the market. “Arm’s forecasts are much higher even of the highest early forecasts,” and are expected to dispel any concerns regarding the change in the company’s profitability structure,” the analysts noted.

Michael Kanterwitz, chief investment strategist at the Piper Sandler investment bank, told CNBC yesterday that “We continue to see the stock market as an oil-driven, one-variable market.” Oil and interest rates are what drive the stock market, and as of now, I think the markets are priced according to current conditions.

Kanterwitz added: “I’m less worried about the economy. I think the American economy can definitely handle oil in the $90-$100 range. I’m a little more worried about interest rates and the fears of stubborn inflation, which will weigh on the stock market multipliers.”

Keith Buchanan, chief investment officer at Globalt Investments, took a similar approach, telling CNBC that the Federal Reserve’s forward outlook for interest rates would be “most vulnerable” if the war drags on much longer. “If oil prices are higher for a longer time, I think everything will come back to inflation expectations and the Fed.” Buchanan explained that if restrictive policy is in place for very long, it will undermine much of the optimism built up in the market heading into this year.

US debt market

At the same time as the recovery recorded in the American stock market last night, a similar trend was also evident in the government debt market. The ten-year yield fell by over 6 basis points to 4.32%, while the two-year yield fell by about 5 basis points to 3.88%. CNBC reported that the rally in the US debt market returned some of the price declines (and the rise in yields) recorded on Tuesday, after a disappointing $69 billion bond auction, during which the weakest demand since March 2025 was recorded. This morning, bond yields are back on the rise: the ten-year yield rises by more than 4 basis points to a level of 4.37%, while the two-year yield rises by about 6 basis points to a level of 3.94%.

The commodity and currency markets

Investors around the world started pricing yesterday a scenario of a relaxation in the war with Iran, and perhaps even a ceasefire. According to Bloomberg, Trump even hinted the other day about a “gift” of enormous value, he did not specify what that gift was, but indicated that it was something related to the flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz. At first, oil prices fell sharply, but later a significant part of the decline was erased. At the end of the day, prices fell by up to 2%, with Brent crude oil trading around $102 per barrel and American crude oil trading around $91 per barrel.

As mentioned, this morning, the prices started to climb again and rise by about 2%. Brent crude is trading at $104 per barrel, while US crude is trading at $92 per barrel. During the night, Bloomberg reported tonight that officials in the Trump administration are examining what a potential jump in oil prices of up to $200 per barrel would mean. The White House spokesman said in response that the administration always evaluates different scenarios, but denied that we will consider a scenario in which oil prices reach $200.

Dan Struiben, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC yesterday that oil price movements in the near term are driven less by changes in the baseline forecast – and more by changes in the perceived likelihood of worst-case scenarios. According to him, in practice, oil trades under a geopolitical risk premium, while investors hedge the risk of prolonged disruptions and critically low stocks.

In the foreign exchange market, the dollar, which is used as a “safe haven” asset, initially reacted by falling to the reports, but later in the day the trend reversed and it strengthened by about 0.2% against the currencies of the world. Also against the shekel, the dollar strengthened by about 0.2% yesterday and its rate stood at NIS 3.11. This morning, the dollar continues to strengthen and its rate is slightly below the NIS 3.12 mark.

In the commodity market, gold returned to strength yesterday, after a significant sequence of declines in recent days, and climbed over 2%. However, this morning it is down again by nearly 3% and is trading around $4,460 per ounce. It is about 20% away from its last high at the end of January, which was about $5,590.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs told CNBC yesterday that the recent pullback in gold prices is largely consistent with historical patterns, citing expectations for higher interest rates and market volatility as the main factors behind the decline.

The bank stated that they do not think the drop is surprising, “in light of our existing pricing framework.” Dan Struivan said that the expectations of an interest rate increase weighed on the demand from investors, especially those who do it through basket funds that track gold, which are “very sensitive to interest rate changes”. Nevertheless, the bank remains with a bullish forecast and expects the precious metal to reach $5,400 by the end of the year. The forecast is based on continued purchases by central banks, while countries aim to diversify their holdings with assets with “lower geopolitical and financial risks”, according to the bank.