‘Black’ summer in the skies with price increases and flights at risk

Airlines review their plans for the summer given the increasing cost of fuel due to the continuation of conflict in Iranwhich has now lasted for over a month. There are those who have developed scenarios that involve leaving part of the fleet on the ground and those who plan increases on tickets, in particular on long-haul routes. With the looming specter of the possible shortage of Kerosene starting in May.

Weekly price of jet fuel more than doubled

The average weekly price of jet fuel, notes the IATA observatory, between February 27th – the day before the start of the conflict between the US and Israel against Iran – and March 27th more than doubled from 99.4 to 195 dollars. Specifically, in Europe the price of a barrel is 198.86 dollarswhile in Asia it rose to 208.79 dollars.
The attention of the aviation sector has focused precisely on the availability of fuel in recent days. Carriers currently operate with fuel purchased earlier on the market, with coverages ranging between the whole of 2026 and early 2027.

Ryanair’s warning

Ryanair’s chief executive, Michael O’Leary, has warned that he believes ainterruption of fuel supplies in early May if the conflict in Iran were to continue, which would lead to an increase in ticket prices in the following months until June. “We trust that the war will end before then and that the risks to supply will disappear”, declared the owner of the main European low cost company.

Lufthansa

Lufthansa, on the other hand, is preparing two emergency packages, Spiegel reports, to deal with the economic effects of the situation in the Middle East. The first package includes the temporary grounding of up to 20 aircraft, the second package doubles up to 40 in case of further worsening of the situation. The ultima ratio would be that of one partial redundancy fundas happened during the most difficult phase of the Covid pandemic. The duration of the conflict remains the most attentive variable but also the least predictable. The CEO of the German carrier Carsten Spohr, Spiegel reports, would not have ruled out that the European hubs could also be affected by supply difficulties.

Ita

The CEO of Ita Joerg Eberhart in recent days speaking to Corriere della Sera made it known that the company has developed “different scenarios” linked to the crisis in the Middle East. In the worst case “the impact is approximately 50 million more costs, on revenues of over 3 billion. Part of the extra cost will be compensated with an increase in tariffs, which is inevitable”. How much will ticket prices increase? “For 2026 we may have to adjust by 5-10%.”

At dinner

Several Chinese airlines, including national carrier Air China, have announced they will increase fuel surcharges on domestic flights starting Sunday, due to rising fuel prices. Air China, Spring Airlines, China Southern and its subsidiary Xiamen Air will increase surcharges by 60 yuan (7.55 euros) on flights up to 800 kilometers and by 120 yuan (about 15 euros) on longer flights. Taiwanese airlines will increase fuel surcharges on international flights by 157%, due to the surge in global oil prices due to the conflict in the Middle East.

Going against the trend is Iag – the company that owns British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus, Vueling

The company said it had no immediate plans to raise prices, as it hedged fuel costs by entering into contracts to purchase at a price set before the conflict began. EasyJet, on the other hand, said ticket prices could increase towards the end of the summer, when fuel hedging agreements expire.