In advance of the March inflation being known, which is expected to be above 3%, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, reiterated that inflation will slow down from April and promised that “the best 18 or 20 tables in Argentina in decades” are coming.
“The part that I see as very positive is that we are beginning to see recovery in the demand for money. I think that Starting in April we will see a slowdown in significant inflation,” Caputo emphasized when speaking at an event organized by the United States Chamber of Commerce.
In this context, the head of the Treasury Palace stated: “I think that definitely “We are going to see a process of disinflation with greater growth.”
“Inflation is going to have a death certificate. When will depend on how much the demand for money recovers, which also depends on confidence and interest rates that are already falling,” said the official when asked about the inflation reduction goals.
And he attacked: “We entered into a virtuous process. I think that starting in April, The next 18 or 20 months are probably going to be the best that Argentina has seen in recent decades.
Asked why the Government is not sweeping the reduction of inflation, the Minister of Economy responded: “Today we are going to see how much the number is, but we have already explained this. The disinflation process that was very pronounced, very good last year, was interrupted during the process prior to the elections where there was, as everyone knows, massive dollarization.”
Along these lines, the national official considered that “Argentina could have grown 7% last year but it did so by 4.4%” and highlighted: “Now there is beginning to be a recovery in the demand for money”.
“50% of M2 was dollarized, there was a sharp drop in the demand for money. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon that is a consequence of an excess supply, a fall in demand or a combination of both,” he added.
Regarding whether consumption changed or fell, Caputo specified: “Reality is heterogeneous in terms of people’s decisions as well. Not everyone reacts the same to the same scenario. You have to give the right incentives. If you give the right incentives, you will surely get the right results. If you give the wrong incentives you will get bad results. That’s what happened to Argentina consistently: it always gave the wrong incentives.”
“It always had a fiscal deficit, which it financed with tax increases, which strongly raised the Argentine cost, which forced the economy to close. How did the business community react? Like what is called hunting in the zoo. Now, you are going to an absolutely reverse process, where you no longer have a deficit, therefore, far from raising taxes, we are lowering them. You do not have to finance that deficit with emissions and therefore you reduce inflation. Now, tand you open a little more to the world to generate the correct incentive, which is competition.“he pointed out.
According to Caputo, “the reaction to that scenario is particular” and he noted: “The music changed, we have to change the pace. Well, some don’t want to change it.”
Immediately afterwards, the official exemplified with the case of Fate: “You can have a reaction like that of Fate’s owner, which is his decision and is respectable, who says ‘if I don’t hunt more in the zoo I’ll close, I won’t play anymore.'” In contrast, Caputo raised the situation of Lumilagro: “It took the opposite attitude. This company decided to invest and adapt.”
In closing, the minister stated that “Employment, at a total level, has grown by more than 200 thousand positions”although he acknowledged that “unfortunately more in the informal sectors”. And he highlighted: “The reconversion process is part of this process of change2.
“What we certainly couldn’t do was stay with the previous model, because there is empirical evidence that it failed, not only in Argentina but everywhere in the world. The reconversion of the industry is something that is happening globally. There is a tertiarization of the economy. The important thing for there to be more employment is that there has to be sustained growth because otherwise it is false growth,” he stated.
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