The war in Iran and the subsequent blockage of the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes, have caused a global energy crisis of a magnitude perhaps not seen since 1973. And while Asia has taken the brunt of the impact, the European Union It is not coming out unscathed.
A situation that causes a greater impact on the Old Continent, explains the expert, because although it is known that 20% of the world’s crude oil circulates through the Strait of Hormuz, less widespread is that 5% of this goes to Europe (and the other 15% to Asia), making it one of the bloc’s most important sources of supply despite its attempts to diversify suppliers.
Faced with this scenario, the European Commission is proposing a series of measures with which it seeks to alleviate the impact of the energy shortage in the bloc, among which initiatives to reduce consumption stand out. Moreno details that “it has been recommended to lower the maximum speed on the roads, encourage the use of public transportation, reduce its rates, establish car-free days and look for alternatives to air transportation over short distances.”
However, the most ambitious measure is the promotion of teleworking. “What the European Commission is proposing is to establish one mandatory teleworking day per week, both in the public and private sectors. This is the first time that this has been raised.“, highlights Moreno.
However, Brussels’ response also shows the limits of the bloc, since these stipulations of the European Commission “are not being taken as measures directly, but rather recommending that the Member States take them,” Banús clarifies. That is, execution remains in the hands of national governments.
Added to these measures to reduce consumption are possible subsidies to affected sectors, such as transport or agriculture, in a context where community rules could be made more flexible.
“It should be noted that under Community law, subsidies are not permitted, except in certain cases,” he highlights. “So, considering that subsidies for certain sectors, such as agriculture or transport, may be compatible with community law, since that is where the European Commission can intervene more.”
Some countries have also begun to act independently, with Germany, for example, evaluating direct aid of one thousand euros to workers to compensate for the increase in transport prices.
“It is a highly debated measure and it is still not known whether it will be executed or not,” he adds. “Here the European Commission has to react because its goal is always for the states to coordinate with each other and remember that everyone is in the same boat.”.
Additionally, the non-binding nature of the recommendations implies that there could be uneven application in the bloc. “Each of the 27 member states will have to decide,” recalls Moreno, who adds that this proposal is still a draft and will have to be evaluated by the member nations when they meet in Cyprus on April 22.
Whether adopted uniformly or unevenly, both experts agree that these measures have a limited scope. “They are measures that have a temporary effect, that help alleviate the pockets of citizens, but do not solve the underlying problem of ending the war.“, considers Banús.
A situation in which the European Union shows a very reduced capacity for influence. On the one hand Tehran, with which it has never had a close relationship; and on the other Washington, with which ties have cooled to points not historically seen since the beginning of Donald Trump’s second term.
“Currently its role is limited. It is not being a protagonist in the negotiations, and there is a significant distance with the United States,” says Banús. “Other actors like Pakistan or Türkiye have a greater presence at this time.”
Additionally, both Banús and Moreno maintain that the very fact that Brussels is discussing these measures shows that the bloc is preparing for a prolonged impact.
“The implementation of these measures shows that the European Union knows that the effect on fuel prices will last a considerable timeregardless of whether the war ends tomorrow or in a few months,” says Moreno.
Along the same lines, Banús warns that even the end of the conflict will not imply an immediate solution: “It is not realistic to think that the day after the war ends everything will return to normal and it is known that the post-war periods are hard and prolonged,” he points out.
The challenge is then to reduce their energy vulnerability, although their options have limitations, especially in the short term.
On the one hand, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the bloc has sought to diversify its supply sources. “They have several alternatives such as the United States, Norway or Azerbaijan,” explains Moreno. However, he warns that not all resources are equivalent: “The oil from the Persian Gulf is of better quality, richer in fuels such as gasoline or diesel, which makes it difficult to completely replace it.”
In parallel, Europe is promoting the transition towards renewable energies, although its capacity remains insufficient at this point. “Renewable energies help, but they still do not cover the large energy demand, especially in industry and heating,” says Moreno.
The most controversial debate revolves around nuclear energy. While countries like France are committed to expanding it, others like Germany have chosen to close it after the disaster in Fukushima. “This is a debate that at some point will have to be addressed in a more coordinated manner,” says Banús.
In the short term, however, alternatives are limited. “For now, the European Union does not have many options”acknowledges Banús.
A situation of vulnerability that has already taken its toll, with Moreno recalling that according to the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, “the war has generated an extra cost of 22,000 million euros in fossil fuel imports in 44 days”.
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