Thailand is at risk of ‘hitting the Sahara heat threshold’ by 2070

Tara Buakamsri, director of the Climate Connectors program, during the weekend’s event introduced Owen Mulhern’s study Too Hot To Live: Climate Change In Thailand.

According to the study, 19 of the 20 hottest years in history fell in the period after 2001. What is worrying is the scenario where the average annual temperature exceeds 29 degrees Celsius, a condition that only appears on about 0.8% of the Earth’s land area, mainly concentrated in the Sahara desert.

Such climate zones could expand sharply in the face of current climate change, which is especially worrying for Thailand. Forecasts show that by the end of this century, Thailand’s average annual temperature (MAT) could exceed 29 degrees Celsius, equivalent to today’s Sahara.

MAT is calculated by averaging the temperatures of all days in a year at a given location. Thailand’s MAT is currently about 26 degrees Celsius, close to the dangerous threshold.

This study raises the concept of “human climate zones”, saying that history shows that humans live best in places with MAT of 11-15 degrees Celsius. The study suggests that increased MAT is not just a few more days of hot sunshine, but a turning point in the climate system. It creates a harsh environment, disrupting the natural conditions that have helped life and economy develop stably for thousands of years.

Ms. Buakamsri said these signs are already present. From March to May every year, Thailand regularly records temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius. More than 50 towns and cities reach or exceed historical heat levels.

In Thailand, extreme heat is accompanied by more frequent and catastrophic droughts and floods, and rising sea levels threaten coastal communities and key economic regions.

According to Ms. Buakamsri, these are not isolated pressures, but overlapping climate risks, making adaptation much more difficult and expensive.

“So the question now is no longer simply how to cope with hotter weather, but whether Thailand can redesign its cities, energy systems, public health capacity and economic model quickly enough to maintain resilience in a much harsher climate environment,” she said.