Extended ceasefire: what could happen next in Iran

The KURIER shows several scenarios as to what could happen next – and what that would mean for the world Petroleum prices and therefore for them World economy means.

• Possible scenario 1: Start of negotiations between the USA and Iran

Even if the planned trip from US Vice President JD Vance to Pakistan was stopped on Tuesday and no negotiators came to Islamabad from the Iranian side, attempts at rapprochement continue through indirect diplomatic channels.

Offers are exchanged via neutral intermediaries, for example from Pakistan, Turkey or Egypt, and presented to the other side. However, the respective demands of the USA and Iran are still too far apart for anyone to even sit down at a common table for concrete discussions.

From the US perspective, 15 demands must be met, two of which are particularly important: Iran must hand over the 440 kg of enriched uranium and refrain from further enrichment for at least 20 years. In addition, Iran must open the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked since March 1, and must not charge any fees for transit thereafter.

Iran, in turn, has presented a ten-point plan: The USA and Israel permanently commit not to launch any further attacks against Iran. The ceasefire also affects Lebanon and thus automatically the Shiite Hezbollah militia, which is allied with Tehran. Further demand: All sanctions against Iran be lifted.

Probability: High that the unofficial diplomatic channels will be used. The USA is behind it and wants to reach a deal and open the Strait of Hormuz as quickly as possible.

Negotiating on the Iranian side is more difficult – extremist forces in the Revolutionary Guard apparently do not want to make any concessions. So it remains to be seen who will prevail in Tehran: forces willing to compromise or those who want to continue fighting at all costs.

The US and Iran continue to threaten each other without resuming fighting. Continuing to fight would only drive up costs on both sides without getting any closer to their respective goals. So the mutual barriers and blockades in the Persian Gulf are maintained. “As long as the American naval blockade lasts, Iran will at least not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and if necessary, it will break the blockade by force,” said a report by the Iranian Tasnim news agency, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Probability: High – as long as there is no willingness to negotiate with each other again. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of global oil shipments pass, also means that the Shortage of petroleum and natural gas will rise, driving prices up again.

Possible scenario 3: Israel attacks Lebanon again, ceasefire is ended, war continues

There are several potential reasons why the current ceasefire could fail: 1. If Israel attacks Hezbollah in Lebanon again – then Iran could see that as an opportunity to attack the Gulf states again. 2. When Donald Trump finally runs out of patience. 3. If Iran doesn’t want to compromise at all. And even if the USA boards more and more Iranian ships or if Iran sinks ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

It would be questionable how severe the attacks would be if the war flared up again. Would it be short rounds of attacks to force the opponent back to the negotiating table? Or would it be, as Trump once threatened, to “wipe out an entire civilization” and bomb Iran “into the Stone Age?” Or would the extreme forces in Iran then try to bomb the Gulf states for too long until they finally enter the war?

This would ultimately be a catastrophe for Iran, and even more so for its population; the economy would collapse and the violent regime would perhaps still remain in power. The US would also pay a high price, with inflation rising rapidly. However, the entire global economy would also have to pay this price.

Probability: Unfortunately it cannot be ruled out.