A giant that goes out: the Yanamarey glacier lost more than 80% of its surface and is about to disappear

The loss of mass of the glacier is explained by the accelerated rise of the Balance Line (ELA), which has risen approximately 22 meters per decade since the 1970s. As this line rises (the limit where the accumulated snow compensates for the melted ice), the glacier is left with practically no accumulation zone, condemning it to perpetual ablation (melting).

The project was developed under the framework of the Geo Mountains Small Grants 2024-2025 program, sponsored by the Mountain Research Initiative. The methodology stands out for the implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and numerical models to improve mass balance estimates, especially in areas that are difficult to access. However, the expert is emphatic that technology does not replace the value of human effort in the high mountains.

“Technology is a great ally, but not as a total replacement for field work. We require in situ information because it is very valuable; It is the one that gives us greater precision and accuracy of what is really happening”says Bello.

Thus, AI makes it possible to process large climate databases and correct the margin of uncertainty in satellite information, but it depends on real data collected on the ground to be effective.

The disappearance of glaciers not only alters the landscape, but also puts in check the survival of communities that depend on meltwater for agriculture, human consumption and energy generation. The accelerated release of water from receding glaciers creates a false sense of abundance that, in the long term, will result in unprecedented water scarcity.

“We are interested in effectively knowing how these elements that store water are going to be modified in the future, because this is going to be associated with the real availability that we are going to have for the primary sustenance of the populations.”, explains the scientist.

The photographs speak for themselves. The researcher points out that the most worrying aspect can be seen in the photographs collected in the last 50 years, which show an accelerated and truly worrying decline that affects the local and global scale.

Institutional challenges and strategic recommendations

The study also highlights the difficulties that Peruvian institutions face in maintaining monitoring. The maintenance of stations in extreme weather conditions and the need for high-tech equipment require constant state support. Given the imminent loss of Yanamarey as a “reference glacier”, the team proposes:

• Standardize technological protocols: Organize technical workshops to unify the use of drones and digital image processing between academia and State institutions.
• Designation of new reference glaciers: It is urgent to instrument and monitor new snowfalls in other regions to ensure the continuity of climate data series.
• Investment in sustainability: Ensure budgets that allow the permanence of monitoring programs despite geographical difficulties.

“It is urgent to allocate a budget to be able to advance in research that allows us to know how the availability of water resources will change over time, because it can affect populations in the future.”says Bello.

The story of Yanamarey should serve as an urgent reminder of the need to comply with the 2030 Agenda and protect the water resources of the Andes in the face of a climate that changes faster than our mountains can withstand, says the researcher.