OECD, GDP slows in 2026 but the economy is resilient

Italian economy he withstood the shock of the last few months, but remains exposed to one weak growth ea structural constraints. L’OECDin his latest outlook presented today, revises growth estimates downwards, GDP at +0.4% in 2026 e +0.6% in 2027explaining that the new framework weighssoaring energy prices recorded at the beginning of the year, which is slowing down household consumption, production and investmentswith effects similar to those observed in other advanced countries.

Lo macroeconomic scenario remains under pressure but in gradual rebalancing. Il deficit is expected at 3.1% of GDP in 2025decreasing at 2.9% in 2026 et al 2.8% in 2027. Il public debthowever, remains at high levels: from 137.1% of GDP of last year is expected at 137.5% in 2026 et al 137.4% in 2027. On the job marketthe unemployment is expected to decline from 6% from 2025 al 5.6% in 2026with a slight rise to 5.7% in 2027. L’inflationafter the1.6% from 2025it should accelerate to 2.4% in 2026 and then reduced to1.8% in 2027reflecting the effect of energy prices and the subsequent reabsorption of current pressures.

Resilience and impact of the Pnrr in the latest OECD report

According to theOECDthe resilience recent has been supported by a combination of factors: diversified production structure, public intervention and support measures, including i tax credits they investments linked to the Pnrr. These helped to strengthen employment and real incomeswhile i balance sheets of businesses and families they are overall more solid and the financial system appears stable. The reforms and investments related to Pnrr et al medium-term fiscal-structural plan are facing some historical weaknesses: progress is recorded on competition, civil justice, digitalization of public administration e infrastructural improvementas well as on climate transition and on the strengthening of educational system. L’OECD emphasizes how to make permanent i more effective mechanisms introduced with the Pnrr it would improve the state’s capacity to plan and implement public policies more effective.

Structural critical issues and external risks according to the OECD

However, in Italia however, they remain structural critical issues important. The long-term growth prospects are limited by a high public debtfrom theaging of the population and from one stagnant productivity. Il decline in birth ratethe low female participation in the workforce el’youth emigration they reduce the potential of the economy. Added to these factors are the external uncertainties: geopolitical tensionsnew dutiesa growing one competition from emerging economies and rapid spread of new technologies difficult to adopt in our country. To ensure a credible debt reduction trajectoryl’OECD indicates the need for improvement quality and efficiency of public spendingcontain i pension costsstrengthen the fight against tax evasion and rebalance the revenue mix in a more favorable sense growth e all’employment. Il medium-term plan provides a path of gradual consolidation until 2031but it will require significant interventions both on the side of the expense both on that of come in.

The crux of the employment market

Il employment marketwrites theOECDremains one of the main nodes. A high share of young stay out of the world of work and come on training paths and often chooses to leave the country, while the mismatch between skills offers and requests remains very marked. THE’OECD recommends strengthening the school-work transitionexpand the offer of technical and vocational education of quality and spread effective internships integrated into training courses. At the same time, the need to reduce the duality of the labor market and support i incomes of young people to encourage participation.

Business productivity and energy

On the side of businessesthey weigh the small size of businesses and micro-businessesthe many regulatory and fiscal constraints and the difficulties of access to financing. According to theOECDlighten the administrative burdensimprove theaccess to creditstrengthen the support for innovation and develop managerial skills more advanced conditions are necessary to increase productivity and resilience of the entire system. Finally, the energy theme remains central. Reduce energy costs and volatility – through an acceleration in the development of renewable sourcesthe strengthening of transmission networks and gods storage systems – is considered crucial to support the competitiveness of businesses and the purchasing power of families.