“The war is not over”: between the United States and Iran, the impasse and stalled negotiations

The impasse. Efforts to end the war in the Middle East appear to have stalled. This Tuesday, the United States seemed skeptical about a new proposal from Tehran to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, still virtually paralyzed. The reopening of the strait, a strategic maritime passage for oil and gas trade, is a major issue for a lasting settlement of the conflict, triggered by Israeli-American strikes against Iran on February 28.

While a ceasefire has been in force for three weeks, the strait remains blocked by Tehran, Washington is still blockading Iranian ports and negotiations are stalling. “We do not consider the war to be over,” Iranian army spokesman Amir Akraminia told state television.

A new Iranian proposal to break the deadlock was discussed in Washington by Donald Trump and his main security advisers. US officials did not deny reports from CNN and the Wall Street Journal that the US president suggested during the meeting on Monday that he was unlikely to accept the offer.

Iran calls on the United States to be more reasonable

Tehran called on Washington to renounce its “illegal and irrational demands”, saying that the United States was “no longer in a position to dictate its policy to independent nations”. According to an article on the American site Axios, relayed by the official Iranian agency Irna, the Iranian proposal aims to reopen the strait and end the war, and, at a later date only, to negotiate on the nuclear issue.

The Iranian Parliament is preparing a law to place the strait under the authority of the armed forces, to prohibit the passage of Israeli ships and to charge passage fees in Iranian rials. “We cannot tolerate the Iranians trying to establish a system in which they decide who can use an international maritime route and how much we have to pay them to use it,” replied the head of American diplomacy, Marco Rubio, Monday on Fox News.

For the American analysis center Soufan, “Iranian leaders believe that the rise in oil prices and the imminent global shortages of derivative products (…) put President Trump under strong pressure to the point of pushing him to accept a settlement of the conflict far from his demand for a unconditional surrender ».

Trump attacks German chancellor

On the American side, “Trump and his team seem to be betting, erroneously according to many experts, on the fact that a strengthening of the American blockade on Iranian ports will push the regime’s leaders to accept the main demands of the United States,” continues this source.

Donald Trump violently attacked German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, accusing him on his Truth Social network on Tuesday of “not knowing what he was talking about” on Iran. The German leader asserted on Monday that “the Americans (have) visibly no strategy” in Iran and judged that Tehran was “humiliating” the world’s leading power.

The US military announced on Tuesday that it had boarded and then freed a merchant ship in the Arabian Sea, suspected of having attempted to violate the US blockade. Since the blockade was imposed on April 13, 39 ships have been redirected to ensure compliance, she said. The paralysis of the Strait with no prospect of unblocking has serious repercussions on the global economy and a barrel of Brent finished at $111.26 on Tuesday.

Faced with the diplomatic impasse, Qatar has warned of a “frozen conflict” in the Gulf. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) castigated Iran’s “blatant attacks” against its members, asking Tehran for “serious initiatives to restore confidence” following a meeting of regional leaders in Saudi Arabia.