Trump rejects Iran’s proposal, oil over 100 dollars: Meloni’s plan

The president of the United States judged Tehran’s initiative to definitively end the war as insufficient. The Islamic Republic has called for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, sealed by the American naval blockade for weeks, to put an end to the conflict. With the agreement reached, according to Iran, the nuclear program and the 440 kilos of uranium enriched to 60% could be discussed. Trump evaluated, reflected with his collaborators and said no. For the American president, the first red line does not change: Tehran must never have nuclear weapons.

Why Iran needs a deal

Mediators in Pakistan are therefore awaiting a revised proposal from Iran, as sources close to the negotiations tell CNN. The development of the new document takes time: it is necessary to reconcile different positions and find a compromise between doves and hawks, between those who are willing to make concessions and those who do not move from the ‘wall to wall’. The most radical wing of the conservative front – the Paydari faction – opposes any dialogue with the United States. The Islamic Republic’s decision-making process is also slowed down by communication difficulties with the Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is in a location kept secret for security reasons.

Trump is convinced that Iran will be forced to negotiate quickly. “Iran has just told us that it is in a ‘state of collapse’. They are asking us to ‘open the Strait of Hormuz’ as soon as possible, while they try to clarify the situation on the leadership (which, in my opinion, they will succeed in doing)”, writes the American president on Truth. The White House’s number 1 is convinced that Tehran’s oil industry is close to implosion: “They can’t transport crude oil, they don’t have ships or containers to load it. If the system fails, it becomes impossible to restore it.” It’s not just oil that worries Iran. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has significant effects on the import of basic necessities which are becoming scarce. The country’s economy, strained by the war, continues to suffer and employment also becomes a hot topic with thousands of jobs at risk.

Why the agreement is useful to the USA (and also to Italy)

Even for the United States, and for the West in general, the calendar plays an increasingly central role. From May 1st, 60 days after the first attacks began on February 28th, Trump ‘risks’ having to resort to authorization from Congress to proceed with further actions. Beyond the institutional framework, as Axios reports, concern is growing in Washington over the possible involvement of the United States in a “frozen” conflict, without open war but also without agreement. In this scenario, the Stars and Stripes forces would remain deployed in the region for months, with the Strait of Hormuz closed, while the two sides would continue to wait for a move from their adversary.

The economic consequences would be serious, not only for the USA. Oil travels at around 100 dollars a barrel: the price of energy, petrol and diesel weighs on the pockets of citizens of countries around the world, including Italy. The aviation sector is gearing up, day after day, to live with the risk of fuel ‘rationing’.

The rush of oil

The cost of gasoline in the United States has reached another peak since the war began. The average price in the last few hours has risen by more than 6 cents, reaching $4.18 per gallon (one gallon is equivalent to 3.785 litres). Compared to February 28, when the conflict began, the average overall increase was $1.19.

In Italy, the excise duty cut implemented by the government expires in a few days. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is open to an extension, perhaps modulated in a different way: “We are evaluating a further extension. It could be shorter than the previous ones. The increase in diesel fuel was much more significant than that of petrol: on average around +24% for diesel versus around +6% for petrol. So it could be an intervention that has a greater impact on the price of diesel than that of petrol, to try to obtain a more balanced effect”. “The international situation is constantly evolving, so we try to remain anchored to the trend of the general picture”, explains Meloni.

The risk of a new escalation

Prudence is necessary, given the scenario that is emerging in the White House. According to a source close to the administration, six months before the midterm elections, a prolonged stalemate would represent “the worst case scenario” for Trump. A new acceleration, therefore, cannot be ruled out. “All they (Iranian leaders, ed.) understand are bombs,” the president reportedly told an aide recently, while maintaining – according to the same sources – a “frustrated but realistic” line: avoiding the use of force but without backing down. Within the Administration, some advisors are pushing to maintain the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and further strengthen sanctions before evaluating new military actions. At the same time, Trump is also dealing with more interventionist figures, including Senator Lindsey Graham, who favor military action to break the impasse.