War in the Middle East: the price of a barrel of oil at its highest level since the start of the conflict

Unprecedented levels since mid-2022 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Oil jumped to more than $124 a barrel on Thursday, about double its pre-war level, after the United States raised the prospect of a long blockade of Iranian ports, which would further prolong the pressure on the global economy.

Around 06:30 GMT (8:30 a.m. in Paris), the barrel of Brent from the North Sea, the world market benchmark, rose 5.39% to 124.39 dollars, after having climbed during trading by around 7.5% to 126.41 dollars.

If the guns have fallen silent since a ceasefire in force since April 8, the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the hydrocarbons consumed in the world once transited, remains subject to a double Iranian and American blockade.

The blockade “more effective than bombings”

This new outbreak comes after a senior US official indicated on Wednesday that the White House planned to “continue the current blockade for months if necessary”.

“The blockade is a little more effective than bombing,” commented Donald Trump himself in an interview with the American site Axios.

A total of 42 boats have been intercepted so far attempting to “violate the blockade” and 41 tankers cannot leave Iran, according to Admiral Brad Cooper, US commander for the Middle East, who deemed the blockade “highly effective”.

The oil market got even more excited on Thursday with the publication of an article from the media Axios claiming that Donald Trump was to be briefed on Thursday by the army on possible new military actions against Iran.

“The fighting has largely stopped, but no lasting solution is emerging,” noted the experts from the DNB firm, saying they fear a “prolonged impasse” while the talks are at a standstill.

The United States wants to “activate economic pressure and internal divisions (…) to weaken us or even make us collapse from within,” accused the powerful speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

With no end to the conflict in sight, the American Minister of Defense was treated to a barrage of criticism on Wednesday during his first hearing in the House of Representatives since the start of the conflict.

The cost of the war estimated at 25 billion euros

“Geopolitical catastrophe”, “strategic disaster”, “incompetence”, “self-inflicted wound”, “quagmire” and other lies… the American deputies did not spare Pete Hegseth.

The Pentagon chief revealed that the war in Iran has cost $25 billion so far, justifying it with a question: “What is the price to pay to ensure that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon?” “.

The economic consequences of the conflict are particularly felt in Iran, where the national currency, the rial, has reached its lowest level against the dollar since the advent of the Islamic Republic in 1979.

“The idea of ​​reliving the war is terrifying, but we also have no hope for the outcome of the negotiations,” confided Ali, a 52-year-old Tehran architect, contacted by an AFP journalist in Paris.

Although the truce has been extended sine die, the two camps still cannot agree to resume their negotiations, after an unsuccessful first session on April 11 in Pakistan.