Oil prices and inflation are rising: what is the ECB waiting for?

This was the price for a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea oil Brent on Thursday afternoon it was back at $114, around six percent below the previous day’s value. In the morning, the Brent price temporarily rose to a good $126, its highest level since 2022.

The stalemate in the Gulf and new military options against Iran in the White House are being discussed, are considered to be the cause of the price rally. At the start of the Iran war at the end of February, the Brent price was still around 70 US dollars per barrel. The price increase in two months is therefore between around 60 and 80 percent.

It is hardly surprising that as crude oil prices rise, energy prices as a whole – from refueling to heating – also rise, and inflation is therefore increasing again.

3.3 percent

According to a flash estimate by Statistics Austria for last April, the number rose Inflation in Austria from 3.2 percent in March to 3.3 percent in April. Manuela Lenk, general director of statistics at Statistics Austria, says: “The geopolitical situation continues to have a noticeable impact on inflation. This is particularly evident in fuels and heating oil. Energy prices were a total of 10.7 percent above the level in April 2025; in March they had increased by 6.2 percent compared to the previous year.” According to Lenk, the fuel price brake introduced in April had a dampening effect on prices. It reduced the price of petrol and diesel by up to 10 cents per liter. “As a result, inflation was up to 0.2 percentage points lower,” said Lenk.

Despite the rising inflation, the monetary authorities see the European Central Bank (ECB) In Frankfurt the purchasing power of the euro is apparently not yet in danger.

In April, inflation in the euro zone rose from 2.6 percent in March to 3.0 percent and has therefore already moved relatively far away from the euro target of 2.0 percent. Despite the surge in inflation, the ECB left the key interest rate in the euro zone at 2.0 percent – as experts expected.

ECB President Christine Lagarde and the heads of the national central banks – including Austria’s Martin Kocher – want to continue to monitor price developments before raising interest rates in the fight against inflation. Such a step would make loans and thus investments more expensive and would put a damper on the already almost non-existent economic growth. The financial markets are now expecting an interest rate increase in June.

Lagarde told journalists: “We discussed the decision we made unanimously today, but also a possible increase in detail and in depth.” Decisions will be made from meeting to meeting based on the data available.