Violence in Colombia impacts left-wing favoritism

Who are the main candidates in the Colombian presidential race?

The favorite in the polls is Iván Cepeda, a left-wing senator who has the support of current president Gustavo Petro. Right behind are right-wing candidates Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia. The current scenario indicates that the decision must go to the second round, requiring candidates to seek alliances to win.

Why did public safety become the central theme of the campaign?

Colombia is experiencing an escalation of violence with more than 30 recent attacks linked to guerrilla groups. This comes after the failure of Petro’s ‘total peace’ plan, which sought agreements with FARC dissidents. Experts point out that armed groups expanded their influence from 6 to up to 14 departments (states) during the current government, generating panic among the population.

How is the right using the security crisis politically?

Candidates like Paloma Valencia argue that the left’s policy of dialogue has failed to contain crime. They promise to abandon negotiations and resume what they call ‘all-out war’ against the factions. When violence increases close to the vote, voters tend to seek ‘tough-handed’ proposals and state control, which has historically benefited the conservative opposition.

What is the position of the government and the left on the attacks?

President Gustavo Petro and candidate Iván Cepeda claim that the violence is an attempt by the ‘extreme right’ and drug traffickers to sabotage the elections and weaken the officialist candidacy. They argue that the attacks prove that urgent agreements with armed groups are more necessary than ever to pacify the country.

Can the wave of violence really change the results of the polls?

Yes. Analysts indicate that security crises shift the debate from social issues, such as inequality, to order and control. If voters feel that the State has lost control of the territory, the election could turn into a plebiscite on governability, breaking the left’s favoritism on the most sensitive point of its legacy: the promise of peace.