La Jornada: Energy prices will grow 24% this year: World Bank

This year, energy prices will rise 24 percent as the war in the Middle East sends a serious shock to global commodity markets, according to a new report from the World Bank (WB).

General commodity prices will rise 16 percent, driven by skyrocketing energy and fertilizer prices, as well as record highs reached by several key metals, the World Bank said.

At the same time, in the analysis Commodity Market Outlookthe international organization indicated that the crisis will have serious consequences for job creation and development.

“Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 35 percent of global seaborne crude oil trade transits, have triggered the largest oil supply crisis on record to date, with an initial reduction in global supply of around 10 million barrels per day,” he highlighted.

He explained that after reaching moderate levels from their recent maximum in mid-April, Brent oil prices remained more than 50 percent above the levels recorded at the beginning of the year.

The World Bank forecast that in 2026, Brent oil will reach an average of $86 per barrel, which represents a marked increase from the $69 per barrel recorded in 2025.

“These forecasts assume that the most acute disruptions will end in May and that by the end of 2026, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually return to pre-war levels,” the institution confided.

“The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first with rising energy prices, then with rising food prices, and finally with rising inflation, which will raise interest rates and make debt even more expensive,” said Indermit Gill, chief economist and senior vice president for development economics at the World Bank Group.

“A harsh truth: war is development in reverse”

“The poorest people, who spend most of their income on food and fuel, will be hardest hit, as will developing economies already burdened by heavy debt burdens. All of this is a reminder of a stark truth: war is development in reverse,” Gill said.

According to the World Food Programme, if the conflict in the Middle East continues, pressures on food supply and affordability could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity this year.

Prices of base metals such as aluminum, copper and tin are also expected to reach record highs due to strong demand related to sectors such as data centers, electric vehicles and renewable energy.