Iran threatens to harm countries outside the Free Zone – these are its options

Tal Inbar, an expert on the Iranian missile program and a senior research fellow at the MDAA organization, and Aryeh Aviram, a system engineer and project manager at one of the defense industries’ factories, recently explained to Globes that Iran has medium-range missiles that reach 2,000 to 2,500 km. It has also demonstrated the ability to reach the British-American base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, 4,000 km From Iran, but in a one-time fashion and probably with a smaller warhead. Some of the countries in Central and Western Europe also fall within the range, but there are countries in Southern and Eastern Europe that are even closer: this is, for example, the situation in Greece (a distance of 1,700 km), Bulgaria and Moldova (1,500 km each) and Ukraine (1,300 km).

Allies in danger

Israel’s most obvious ally in this range is Greece. The “Hellenic triangle” together with Cyprus is a central point in Israel’s foreign relations, and Deputy Foreign Minister Sharan Hashakal recently said that the relations between the countries are “flourishing”. The three countries are consolidating mainly around the common Turkish threat, with Greece and Cyprus considered too small to withstand Turkey’s military power, but Israel’s accession tilts the balance of power to a great extent. Turkey claims a particularly extensive economic territory around its territory, at the expense of that of Greece and Cyprus, and of course owns Northern Cyprus which it conquered in the seventies, under the “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” which only Turkey recognizes.

Greece and Israel cooperate in security, and Greece even purchases a lot of Israeli equipment. The two also signed cooperation agreements in the field of dealing with UAVs and UAVs. The armies are even allowed to train on each other’s territory. About six months ago, the prime ministers of Israel, Greece and Cyprus met to sign economic and security agreements. All of these, together with the relatively “comfortable” range for Iran’s long-range missiles mark it as a classic target for an Iranian attack outside the Middle East. Unlike the attacks on Cyprus, which were allegedly aimed at the British bases on the island, a direct attack on Greece would be harder to deny.

Other countries that are within range are South-Eastern European countries such as Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine, but their connection to Israel is not strong enough for them to be attacked. On the other hand, India is also within missile range and has a good relationship with Israel, but it also maintains an extensive relationship with Iran. Indian ships have reportedly crossed the Strait of Hormuz through Iranian waters. This is probably part of an agreement between the governments of Iran and India. Recently it was also revealed that the giant Indian corporation Adani purchased oil products under sanctions from Iran. So it is unlikely that it will be attacked.