Ceasefires ‘yes or no’ in the Middle East

After more than two years of conflict spreading from Gaza to Lebanon and then to the direct confrontation between the US, Israel and Iran, the Middle East has witnessed a series of diplomatic efforts to prevent the war from getting out of control. Ceasefire agreements were established one after another, raising hopes of bringing peace to the region.

However, what happened shows a different picture, when air strikes, raids, and firefights still take place in Gaza, Lebanon, southern Israel or the Strait of Hormuz.

This paradox reflects a new reality in the region, where ceasefire no longer necessarily means peace. According to a Middle East security official, the region is witnessing a more flexible interpretation of ceasefire agreements.

“Limited air strikes, targeted offensives and ground advances continue, but the ceasefire agreement remains formally maintained. Diplomatic efforts are focused on preventing the conflict from escalating, rather than completely ending the violence,” the official told Reuters. National.

On April 7, the United States and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement to pave the way for negotiations, aiming for a peaceful solution to the conflict that broke out in late February. However, the two sides then continued to confront with missile launches and attacks on ships, putting diplomatic efforts at risk of collapsing at any time.

The US still bombs military facilities in southern Iran, launches missiles at ships trying to escape the blockade, while Tehran responds with missile and UAV attacks on US military bases and infrastructure in Gulf countries. However, both sides avoided large-scale military actions that could fan the flames of conflict.

US officials believe that Iran’s military activities are only “low level harassing fire”, not yet at the threshold to restart the offensive campaign. Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine emphasized that “no adversary should mistake America’s current restraint for a lack of determination”.

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah broke out on March 2, after the armed group in Lebanon attacked the neighboring country in retaliation for the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The Israeli army then launched a ground offensive into Lebanon.

Israel and Lebanon reached a ceasefire in mid-April, but clashes still occur. Hezbollah has increased its use of UAVs to attack Israeli positions in southern Lebanon and the north of the neighboring country. In response, Israel expanded its ground campaign, penetrating deeper into Lebanese territory.

Continuous fighting has left tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border unable to return home. Many areas in southern Lebanon remain evacuated or suffer heavy infrastructure damage.

In Gaza, Israel continues to maintain military operations against targets it believes belong to Hamas or allied armed groups. Israel recently announced that it had killed Mohammed Odeh, a senior military commander of Hamas, less than two weeks after killing his predecessor.

Israel also expanded control in some strategic areas in the Gaza Strip, especially security corridors and buffer zones along the border. The Israeli military said these operations are aimed at preventing Hamas from reorganizing its forces and restoring combat capacity.

Hamas still conducts limited-scale ambushes against Israeli forces, showing that the group’s military network has not been completely neutralized.

Palestinian health officials say hundreds of Palestinians have died since the ceasefire took effect. The humanitarian crisis has also not improved significantly. Many areas still lack electricity, clean water and basic health services, while much of the population continues to depend on international aid.

Theo Foreign Policysince October 2023, Israel has reached at least seven ceasefires with its opponents, including three in Gaza, two in Lebanon and two involving Iran. The continued fighting after these agreements makes such ceasefires “a yes or no”, according to Avishay Ben-Sasson-Gordis, a researcher at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and Simon Frankel Pratt, a political science expert at the University of Melbourne.

However, two experts say that does not mean they completely fail. “The public often believes that a ceasefire will only be successful if it leads to lasting peace. Any exchange of fire that occurs is seen as evidence that the agreement has failed,” they commented. “Reality in the Middle East shows that ceasefires still bring concrete results.”

These ceasefires have created a lull to lessen the impact on civilians. During previous ceasefire periods in Gaza, more humanitarian aid was brought in, people were given the opportunity to evacuate, and some areas had minimal recovery conditions. The agreements also facilitate the exchange of hostages and prisoners.

In addition to the humanitarian aspect, temporary silences also open up opportunities for negotiations. Even if they do not lead to final peace, they can still help the parties build new bargaining platforms or move to another stage of negotiations.

However, the continuous violation of ceasefires also reflects the fact that the root causes of the conflicts have not yet been resolved.

In Gaza, Israel still considers neutralizing Hamas an important strategic goal. Meanwhile, Hamas has not disarmed and has no clear solution for managing the Gaza Strip after the war.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah is still considered a serious security threat by Israel. A Lebanese security source said the ceasefire was fragile from the start and was designed to manage the conflict rather than end it.

As for the US and Iran, both sides have incentives to avoid a protracted war, but deep disagreements still exist over the nuclear program, sanctions and regional security architecture.

An Arab official said that the Middle East is entering a period of prolonged war, regardless of whether the US and Iran reach a larger agreement or not. “That vicious cycle will continue. This is low-intensity war,” the official said.