Three days before the World Cup: Trump will join the round against Iran?

In the shadow of what appears to be the renewal of the war with Iran, the question arises of how US President Donald Trump will react. Where is he heading, and what is he expected to do in the coming hours and days?

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Ruthie Pins-Feldman, a senior fellow at the Meshgav Institute and a doctoral student at Tel Aviv University, who researches the US, believes that “Trump may leverage the situation to force Iran to return to the negotiating table under terms favorable to the US. The apparent strategy is a combination of an Israeli military attack, at the same time that the US proposes a diplomatic channel for a ceasefire.”

Oded Elam, former head of the CIA division at the Mossad and a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs, also says that Trump may this time try to “calm down the situation before the opening whistle.”

How will the negotiations be affected?

Prof. Eitan Gilboa, an expert on the United States from the School of Communication at Bar-Ilan University and a senior researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center (BSA) for Strategic Studies, explains that “paradoxically, the exchange of fire can improve the American position in the negotiations with Iran, because the Revolutionary Guards have been conducting a strict policy of postponements and deception for several weeks.”

Gilboa explains that “the USA would be ready to accept a short war that would end within a day or two, but the reality in the Middle East does not always meet such desires, and there is certainly a possibility that there will be a longer war, and that there might be some kind of US involvement.”

Elam adds that “the Iranians recognize the plight and the American reluctance to be dragged into a broad escalation, and are therefore exerting heavy pressure. It actually started already about a week ago with attacks and operations against American targets, along with messages also sent to Kuwait and Bahrain.”

According to him, “Tehran’s main concern concerns Lebanon. The significant turnaround led by the Lebanese government causes them real concern, because they fear losing their most important proxy in the region. For them, any damage to Hezbollah’s status is a direct damage to Iranian influence and the deterrence capability they have built up over the years. That is why they are acting as they are acting now, in an attempt to exert pressure, create levers of influence and improve positions for the next phase.

“I assume, very cautiously, that these moves will continue for only a few more days, until we see another attempt to reach a renewed ceasefire or understandings that will allow all parties to lower the height of the flames.”

On the other hand, Fins-Feldman mentions that Trump also “must show the countries of the region and the US’s allies that it will protect them in times of need, that they should join it. He cannot afford damage to the image of the United States as a world power and of himself in front of his enemies, allies and voters. He also understands that Iran is conducting negotiations designed to delay time. Therefore, it is likely that alongside the harsh rhetoric we are now hearing from him to stop the campaign, behind the scenes there is backing.”

How does the World Cup affect?

Another reason Trump may push to return to the discussion table is the opening of the World Cup this Thursday (June 11).

To the question to what extent is the sporting event a factor in Trump’s considerations?, Finns-Feldman answers that “in the US, the upcoming World Cup is seen as much more than a sporting event; It is seen as a critical test of the Trump administration’s ability to project strength and stability. Trump is very interested in the World Cup going smoothly, presenting the USA at the height of its glory and preventing damage to the economy or a spike in oil prices just before the arrival of many tourists.”

The Iranian national team is expected to participate in the games.
“The Iranian team’s games will be held in Los Angeles, the city where the world’s largest diaspora Iranian community is located, which is identified by the vast majority as anti-regime, and which creates a heavy fear of huge political demonstrations outside and inside the stadium. It is clear that Trump would prefer that the games be held under the guise of negotiations and not war.”

Prof. Gilboa is convinced that “three days before the opening of the World Cup, Trump is not interested in a new round of intense and long war that the USA will be dragged into”.

Congressional restrictions

Another factor that may influence Trump’s decision occurred last week. Congress passed a War Powers Resolution against the president, sending a clear message to the current administration – that the war cannot be continued indefinitely.

“The issue mainly raises difficulties in the negotiations, in that it signals to Iran that Trump has a lot of opposition at home and weakens his position that if a good agreement is not signed, the US will return to fighting,” says Pins-Feldman.

“However,” she continues, “it does not appear that this is what is behind Trump’s desire to push for a memorandum of understanding or an agreement with Iran. He has various legal tools at his disposal to deal with this limitation – it is actually possible that the current move in which Israel is the one operating militarily, and the US is not an active partner from an offensive point of view, is part of his strategy.”