Confcommercio: "Signs of stability in the Italian economy but more growth is needed"

“The Italian economy, despite international tensions, shows a holding capacity exceeding expectations“. Words of the president of ConfcommercioCarlo Sangalli, who adds: “Uncertainty remains high, but employment is at historic highs, underlying inflation is below 2% and families still have a good propensity to consume. These are positive data, but investments and competitiveness need to be strengthened to find the path to more robust and long-lasting growth”.

The detailed analysis by the Confcommercio research office

International tensionsconflict in the Persian Gulf, energy risk and persistent geopolitical uncertainties do not, for the moment, indicate a slowdown in the economy. This is what emerges from an analysis by the Confcommercio Research Office. Supporting economic activity are theemployment at historic highsa still significant propensity to consume, growing tourism and underlying inflation that remains below 2%, a sign of a production-distribution system that has not fully transferred external shocks to prices.

For 2026, in fact, GDP growth of 0.9% and consumption of 1.2% are estimated – more optimistic forecasts than those of the main national and international institutions – in a scenario that remains complex but far from recessionary hypotheses.

Demand and household consumption

Of course, underlines the Confcommercio research office, “uncertainty remains high, but it does not translate into generalized mistrust. On the consumption side, in fact, concrete signs of optimism emerge: families’ purchasing intentions in May remain at high levels, in particular for the purchase of household appliances (29%), furniture (24.5%) and for home renovation (23.5%). And even if for some products the levels of past years have not yet been reached, family demand continues to remain solid and Italians do not give up investing in the main durable goods and family projects”.

Tourism as an engine of growth

Intentions regarding the next summer holidays also reflect this sentiment with 38.5% of Italians (the highest value from 2020 to date) who have already planned a holiday, confirming the turismo as one of the main drivers of growth.