The fine print of the financial plan: Caputo will buy almost US$ 5,000 million from the BCRA to pay the debt

“The program has a lot of optionality, it is very conservative, we are working on different alternatives, some for more than a year, and others like Going out to international markets, both this year and next, could be an option, it is not an objective“said Luis Caputo when presenting the financial plan for this year and next.

Accompanied by his entire team, the Minister of Economy arrived at 10:30 at the microcinema on the fifth floor of the Palacio de Hacienda. The press conference announced last Friday coincided with the opening of the markets, where The retail dollar was trading stable at $1,510 and the country risk fell from 415 to 412 points.

In this context, Caputo said that 2026 financing is “overfulfilled” by US$ 3.7 billionsince they would have a fiscal surplus for that amount, and that the 2027 payments will be “less challenging.” According to their calculations, the needs to be covered amount to US$19.2 billion in 2026 and US$24.9 billion next year.

Regarding the funds to be financed, the economic team also made up of Vice Minister José Luis Daza and the Secretary of Finance, Federico Furiase, pointed out the possibility of using Guaranteed loans for US$ 4,000 millionwhich could enter to cancel the US$ 4.2 billion of bonds that mature this Thursday. There are already US$3.9 billion in the Treasury account.

The plan presented also contemplates the purchase of dollars from the BCRA by the Treasury for US$ 6.7 billion in 2026 and US$ 4.9 billion in 2027. Thanks to the purchases started at the beginning of the year at the request of the Monetary Fund, the Central Bank registers US$ 10,000 million of positive net reserves, according to Economía.

The other source of financing will be local investors through the issuance of bonds in local law for US$ 2,000 million this year with the incorporation of a Bonar 2029 for that maximum amount in the next tender and the issuance of US$ 5,000 million in 2027.

Supported by all these tools, the Government ratified its strategy of reducing dependence on Wall Street to cover a “hole” that the market estimated to be around US$10 billion by 2027. But in the market Some doubts persist about how the plan will impact the dollar and the fiscal surplus.

First of all, if the Treasury needs dollars from the Central Bank to pay debt, the market could be more in demand. “There is more pressure than if they did not need to use reserves.but US$5 billion is half of what they bought in the first half of this year,” said Iván Stambulsky, regional economist for Barclays.

Economist Fernando Marull expected that financing would rely less on the purchase of reserves and a little more on the IMF. “It is seen that the strategy did not change much, reserve purchases, local emissionsthere is no refinancing with the Fund, privatizations and bilateral loans, and if the country risk continues to decrease, they return to the markets,” said Marull.

The Treasury will use the fiscal surplus of US$3.7 billion in 2026 and will buy US$5 billion from the BCRA. “It would be financing pressure in the local market, you will not have a fiscal surplus for thatyou are going to have to get the pesos not only to renew debt but to buy them from the Central Bank,” said Nicolás Gadano, chief economist of Empiria.

Meanwhile, economist Federico Machado considered that “although some issues are optimistic, especially placement of debt in the local market, there will be greater political risk in 2027, dollar deposits will not continue to grow at the same speed and more volatility is expected of country risk and the exchange rate”.

“The program they presented addresses the concerns of dollar bondholders, but is still very dependent on the exchange market in 2027 and the ability to place debt in local dollars – the bonars -. I was left with the feeling that they are coming to the market in the second half“said Juan Manuel Pazos, chief economist at One618.