“Heavy consequences”: Why doesn’t Iran fire at Israel?

According to Ella Rosenberg, an expert on terrorist financing and Iran’s economy at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs (JCFA) and a member of the Deborah Forum, the Iranian regime understands that firing directly at Israel could lead to a much heavier price than what it has paid so far. “Iran hasn’t fired yet, and it might happen again, we don’t know yet,” she says. “But as far as I understand, the Iranian regime understands that if it fires at Israel, it will have significant consequences. At the moment, as long as the fire was directed at the Gulf countries and also at Jordan, there were no direct consequences for Iran.”

She adds that one of the main reasons for this is the Iranian strategy to exert indirect pressure on the United States through its allies in the region. Instead of directly confronting Israel, Iran is attacking the Gulf states in the hope that they will put pressure on Washington to end the fighting.

“This is the card that the Iranians use time and time again,” explains Rosenberg. “They are pressuring the Gulf countries so that the Gulf countries will press Trump.” According to her, this pattern also stood out during the current conflict. Already at the beginning of the campaign, the shooting was directed at the Gulf countries, with the aim of getting them to intervene with the American government. “There are also reports according to which the pressure exerted by the Gulf countries was one of the factors that helped bring the last round of fighting to an end,” she says.

“Shooting increases the motivation to prevent escalation”

Firing at the Gulf countries also has significant economic consequences for them, from harming the sense of security to the impact on investments, tourism and the real estate markets. Security officials add that this damage increases the motivation of those countries to act against the US in an attempt to prevent further escalation.

They also point out that the arrival of representatives from the countries of the region to the talks does not necessarily indicate support for the Iranian regime: “They did not come because they like the Iranian regime. They feel that the Arab world did not protect them when they were required to do so, so they are acting out of their security and economic interests.”

According to Rosenberg, the process even fits into the trend of rapprochement between some of the Gulf countries and Israel in recent years. However, she emphasizes that it is premature to conclude that Israel has completely dropped from the list of possible destinations. “The first shot at Israel hasn’t happened yet,” she says. “I don’t know if it will happen, but it seems that the Iranians understand very well that if they choose such a move, the consequences for them will be much clearer and heavier”