A historical transformation: after two decades of disconnection

The rapprochement between Caracas and Jerusalem and the geopolitical upheaval in South America may seem at first glance like another official move by diplomats in suits, but in fact it is a huge drama that completely changes the political map of the continent. For almost twenty years, Venezuela was considered one of the most hostile strongholds for Israel in the world. Under Hugo Chávez and his successor Nicolás Maduro, Caracas severed diplomatic ties with Jerusalem back in 2009, effectively turning the country into the main gateway for Iranian influence in Latin America. Now this picture changes from end to end.

In a dramatic and joint announcement, yesterday Venezuela and Israel approved an agreement to establish an official coordination mechanism for the provision of consular services. Although it is not yet a question of a full exchange of ambassadors and the opening of embassies, the very willingness of Venezuela to resume official contacts represents a huge turn. With the softening of Caracas, almost the entire South American continent is being repainted in blue and white, with Brazil remaining the only major country in the region that still maintains a hostile or reserved line, a status that will be tested in the upcoming elections in October.

Behind this surprising turn is a chain of dramatic events. The first of which is of course the American military operation at the beginning of January, in which Nicolás Maduro was captured. The interim administration that arose as a result, led by Acting President Delsea Rodriguez, is operating under heavy pressure from Washington. In order to rehabilitate the country, stabilize the economy and bring about the cancellation of American sanctions, Rodrigues chose to move away from the historic alliance with Tehran and get closer to the foreign policy of the United States.

The event that practically accelerated the process was the double earthquake disaster that struck Venezuela on June 24, leaving over 6,300 dead and tens of thousands missing. Israel was quick to lend a hand and sent a humanitarian delegation of experts to locate, rescue and evaluate buildings. The meeting in the field opened a direct communication channel between the Venezuelan Foreign Minister Felix Placencia Gonzalez and the Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar. The leader of the local Jewish community, Chief Rabbi Yitzhak Cohen, also joined the effort, who made an official request to the interim administration to regulate the consular channels to help the Jewish community, which currently numbers around 3,000 to 4,000 people. In the end, the two countries announced the continuation of technical cooperation and the renewal of consular services, while noting the Jewish community as a bridge of friendship between the nations.

Venezuela’s move does not occur in a vacuum, but joins a series of dramatic political changes across the continent. In Colombia, the election of the conservative president Abelardo de la Esparria brought an immediate end to the harsh anti-Israel line of his predecessor, Gustavo Petro, when de la Esparria already declared the recognition of the Golan Heights as an inseparable part of Israel, his intention to return relations to their natural course and even move the embassy to Jerusalem. In Bolivia, President Rodrigo Paz restored the diplomatic relations that were severed at the end of 2023, and when Javier Millay’s Argentina joins them, along with Ecuador, Peru, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay, a completely new map is obtained.

For the Israeli traveler, these data are far beyond diplomacy, they are dramatic security and logistical news. South America was and remains one of the favorite and most popular destinations for Israeli backpackers after military service. For almost a decade and a half, a trip to countries like Venezuela or Bolivia was considered a complex and dangerous event, when in the absence of a consular representation or diplomatic relations, backpackers who fell into distress, accidents, loss of passports or emergency situations were left without political support and without the possibility of official assistance. More than once, Israeli travelers in the region have also become a focus of friction and boycotts due to the political situation.

The renewal of the consular axis in Caracas and the alignment of the neighboring countries now create a safe, accessible and much more inviting space for Israeli backpackers and tourists. The possibility of receiving an official consular response, contacting embassies in emergency situations and enjoying regulated entry procedures almost all over the continent, effectively returns the South American space to its great days as an open and safe backpacking destination.

The trend is similar in Central America as well: countries such as El Salvador of Najib Bokla and Honduras of Nasri Espora are tightening ties and security partnerships with Israel. The notable exception in the region, next to Brazil, is Mexico, where President Claudia Sheinbaum maintains a more cautious and distant line.

A fascinating security and technological aspect is also added to this political drama: for years, populist regimes in the region relied on weapon systems and technology from China and Russia. However, during the American operation in Caracas, the advanced Chinese-made radar and detection systems failed to detect the incoming aircraft, a failure that caused many countries in the region to lose confidence in Chinese security equipment and turn instead to Israeli-made intelligence, security and disaster response technologies.

The eyes of the whole world are now on Brazil, where decisive presidential elections will be held in a few monthstowards a political drama that may affect the geopolitical balance in Latin America as a whole. On October 4, 2026, approximately 160 million eligible voters in Brazil, the fourth largest democracy in the world, will go to the polls as part of the general elections. In addition to deciding on the identity of the next president, the voters will also decide on the governors of the states, two-thirds of the seats in the Senate and all the members of the lower house. If no candidate obtains more than 50 percent of the true votes in the first round, a decisive second round will be held on October 25. At stake is the country’s political and economic future, along with a dramatic impact on the composition of the Supreme Court, a powerful 11-judge institution that often interferes in local politics, as the president-elect is expected to appoint four new judges during his term.

Now, the presidential race is centered mainly on a head-to-head battle between incumbent President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula from the Workers’ Party, who will celebrate his 81st birthday in October, is running for president for the seventh time and hopes to become one of the few presidents in history to win four democratic elections. He strives to protect his socio-economic heritage, which includes reducing poverty and expanding access to education, alongside achievements in reducing deforestation in the Amazon. On the other hand, many voters are disappointed with his performance in the face of growing government debt, inflation and a real interest rate of 9 percent, the second highest in the world, alongside the corruption scandals in his past that included a 19-month prison sentence, until his conviction was overturned due to a technicality.

In front of him is Flavio Bolsonaro, who tried to open the campaign in a more moderate tone and present himself as a “vaccinated Bolsonaro”, in contrast to his father who is currently under house arrest for a coup attempt. However, the policy lines he established align with the conservative camp: he proposes to cut public spending, ease environmental bureaucracy, tighten punitive measures, promote the impeachment of top judges and release his father from prison. Flavio entered the race accompanied by a cloud of suspicions of corruption, ties to militias in Rio de Janeiro and a leaked recording in which he was heard asking for money from a banker involved in a huge fraud. Tensions around him increased even more after he chose as his running mate Vice President-designate Alfredo Gasper, a lawmaker and former federal prosecutor facing serious allegations of sexually assaulting a 13-year-old girl, allegations he vehemently denies.

The latest polling data from the CNT/MDA institute indicates a close race. In the first round, Lula leads with about 42.4 percent of all votes, while Flavio Bolsonaro stands behind him with 28.7 percent, with a list of other right-wing candidates such as Ronaldo Cayado, Romeo Zema and Renan Santos garnering only a few percent. However, in the scenario of a second round, the picture becomes much more tense: the gap between the two narrows significantly, with Lula receiving 48 percent of the support compared to 39.1 percent for Bolsonaro Jr., a momentum that shows a strengthening of Flavio compared to the figures of the beginning of the summer.

Beyond the domestic arena, the elections in Brazil are a fundamental test of Donald Trump’s regional influence. Since Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025, right-wing candidates have registered victories in all seven election campaigns held in Latin America, many of them under his open patronage. Trump even put direct pressure on the Brazilian system when he imposed sanctions and visa cancellations against the Supreme Court judges who led to the imprisonment of Jair Bolsonaro, and his administration recently applied heavy import duties on goods from Brazil. Now, with the Brazilian Congress aiming to work on an extremely short schedule until October, and the center-right political bloc maintaining neutrality and not giving automatic support to Flavio, any move in the coming weeks could spell the fate of this critical country’s leadership.