The Black Sea grain war pushes prices sky high

Wheat price rally following the almost total paralysis of trade routes in Black Seaexacerbated in the last two months by mutual attacks with missiles and drones Russia e Ukraine. The primary cause of the blaze of cost of wheat it is the collapse of safe navigation agreements, which has transformed the basin into a very high risk area for transport.

Soaring cost of wheat

In the last sessions of Chicago Board of Trade (Cbot)i future sul soft wheat have recorded surges up to increases of 45 US cents per day per bushel, leading prices to jump by more than 35% since the beginning of the year and 20% in the last two months, to the highest levels of the last two years.

Exports collapse in Ukraine

Due to the systematic bombing of the infrastructure of Odessa and the river Danubethe Ukraine’s grain exports they plummeted 75% in the first half of August compared to last year. “Ukrainian wheat exports are now the lowest in 16 years,” he tells AfricaBusiness Andrey SizovCEO of the agricultural markets research firm SovEcon. “Activity at Odessa’s three Ukrainian terminals, which accounted for more than 90% of its grain exports in the first half of 2026, is close to zero.”

The Black Sea Route

L’Ukraine is among the world’s largest producers of wheat seeds, more, sunflower and about 90% of exports of these crops pass through the Black Sea. To make matters worse, Kiev’s wheat harvest campaign is at its peak. The grain warehouse of Rybalko it is already almost complete and the corn harvest will begin next month. THE’agriculture It accounts for nearly 60% of Ukraine’s export earnings, and the blockade adds pressure to the fragile wartime economy.

Harvest prospects

Kiev plans a cereal harvest by about 60 million tons this year, almost the same as in 2025. But this time Ukrainian farmers have little hope for next year’s crops. Without exports they cannot raise enough funds for the next collection cycle.

Attacks on trade routes

In recent weeks theUkraine stepped up attacks on Russian ships in Black Sea and in Mar d’Azovcausing the closure of many terminals that overlook it. Kiev’s raids directly hit the port of Novorossiysk (hub for 40% of Moscow’s exports), forcing the Russia to attempt complex alternative routes through the Baltic or by land.

The decline in global shipments

According to the analytical data of Bimcothe global grain shipments have fallen by 8% per year, weighed down by a 26% contraction in sea flows from Black Sea.

Rising prices and unsold stock

And while i international wheat prices they fly due to the shortage of supply, in the internal markets of Russia e Ukraine Agricultural prices are collapsing due to accumulated and unsellable stocks, exposing local farmers to a strong risk of bankruptcy.