"The CDU is shaken to its foundations"Merz calls together the leaders after the AfD boom i…

Showdown in the CDU in Germany.Friedrich Merz calls his party together to discuss and metabolize the heavy defeat suffered in yesterday’s elections Sassonia-Anhaltwhere the far right of Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved its most significant victory ever, winning the 44% of the votes.

Merz: “The vote for AfD is like an earthquake”

The triumph of the AfD in the regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt represents “a tectonic earthquake” for the German political system and “shakes the CDU to its foundations“. The chancellor and Christian Democratic leader would have declared it Friedrich Merz during the meeting of the federal party leadership, according to Bild.

Merz would have evoked the risk of the birth of “a far-right government” led by “a far-right president” in Saxony-Anhalt. “We have a strong Constitution and all the tools necessary to defend it from a far-right regional government, but we are witnessing a tectonic upheaval of our party system,” he was quoted as saying. “We can’t just carry on as if nothing had happened: the CDU can’t do it, I can’t do it and the federal government can’t do it,” Merz reportedly added.

At the CDU party meeting the German Chancellor reiterated that “there cannot be no cooperation with thefar right of the AfD“.

“Giving up is not an option for me” declared German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in response to a question on the possibility of resignation. Merz reiterated his desire to continue with government reforms despite the triumph of the AfD.

The defeat of the CDU in Germany

The regional governor of the CDU, Sven Schulzevisibly dejected by the modest 18% obtained by the chancellor’s party, he placed the responsibility for the defeat on the federal government which, he said, ended up hindering his electoral campaign. “We often faced headwinds, and it wasn’t always easy,” he said.

AfD one step away from governing a land

The electoral triumph brought theAfDofficially classified as “extreme right” by German internal intelligence, one step away from leading the government of a state for the first time.

However, the party appears to have fallen short absolute majority and this paves the way for long negotiations before the formation of a new government in the regional assembly of Magdeburg. Nonetheless, the result shocked the world profoundly Germaniawhich had so far managed to keep extremist parties in check in the post-war period.

The political shock in Germany

“For the first time since the end of Second World Warthe AfD, a party whose regional branch is classified as right-wing extremist, is close to gaining an absolute majority,” he said Daniel GuntherCDU governor of Schleswig-Holstein. “It is a shocking moment for our country.”

The pressure on Merz

Per Merzwho followed the arrival of the results from the party’s headquarters in Berlin late on Sunday evening, but without making any public statements, the result represents a further blow at a time when his approval ratings are in sharp decline. The AfD’s leading candidate, the 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmundenjoyed mocking the septuagenarian Merz, calling him “a very good promoter” for the AfD.

Every day with Merz in the Chancellery is “one day too many”, he added. The national leaders of the AfD, Alice Weidel e Tino Chrupallaurged the regional branch of the party to try to take over the government, seeing it as a model ahead of the 2029 national elections.

The numbers and government scenarios

According to projections by German public broadcasters, the AfD is just three seats away from reaching an absolute majority of 42 seats in the regional parliament. On the other front, but also without a clear majority, there is a grouping of parties opposed to the AfD: the Cduthe Social Democrats of Spdi Verdi and the far-left party The left.

One option would be to see the little one Bswa left-wing party which however adopts far-right positions on immigration, will act as a balancer, as long as it manages to overcome the 5% threshold to enter the regional parliament.

The AfD could also try to subtract parliamentarians to other parties, should they wish to change sides and join its ranks. Siegmund said he wanted to “reach out to all forces that want to achieve fundamental political change with us.”

The reactions in the CDU

Meanwhile, signs of discontent emerge within the Cduthe party that governs Germany in coalition with the centre-left Social Democrats. Dennis Radtkepresident of the wing representing the workers, defined Sunday’s vote as a “turning point”, stating that “the usual phrases about a ‘bitter evening’ and the need for an analysis are no longer enough”.

Thorsten Freileader of the centre-right group, called for calm, recalling that the chancellor was elected for a four-year term and therefore warned against drawing “wrong conclusions” from the result in Saxony-Anhalt.

A change in the party system

However, the political scientist Oliver Lembcke from Ruhr University in Bochum agrees that the election result represents “more than a serious electoral defeat for the CDU”. “We are seeing a tectonic shift in the party system,” he says. “A protest and opposition party is transforming, at least in some areas of eastern Germany, into a party with a concrete prospect of going to government.”

Conservative strategy under scrutiny

Merz promised to return the CDU to its conservative roots and initiated a crackdown onirregular immigrationwhile trying to revive a stagnant economy. Lembcke recalls that last year Merz “took office with the promise of containing the AfD, yet the party has further strengthened, despite the more conservative turn taken by the CDU”.

“This”, he concludes, “places Merz faced with a question of renewed urgency: what strategy can his party adopt to reverse this trend?”.