Russia strikes Europe’s weakest point – Here is Putin’s calculation

In recent months, Europe has seen an extraordinary number of suspected Russian sabotage and hybrid operations. The most serious situation was experienced at the beginning of August in Germany, when a drone equipped with explosives was found at the Leipzig airport, which the German authorities announced as a failed Russian bomb attack.

Shortly after this, the defense minister of Lithuania warned about the operation being prepared by Russia in the Baltics.

In mid-August, Poland said it had foiled a Russian assassination plan in Warsaw.

At the beginning of September, the Danish Security and Intelligence Service announced that it had uncovered sabotage operations in Denmark prepared by Russia.

On Wednesday, the Spanish newspaper El Mundo reported that the US Central Intelligence Service CIA had warned that Russia was preparing drone attacks on Spain, France or Italy, but this information has not been officially confirmed.

In addition, in several countries, Russia’s suspected sabotage campaigns have targeted, for example, logistics centers, transport and railway infrastructure, defense industry supply chains, and warehouses and equipment related to supporting Ukraine.

A week of warnings

Last week, several European leaders publicly highlighted the threat posed by Russia.

Among other things, the president of France Emmanuel Macron warned that Russia’s hybrid threat to Europe and France has intensified. He mentioned cyber-attacks, sabotage, drones, airspace violations, disinformation and espionage, and said that “the day we are physically attacked, we will not be forewarned.”

Prime Minister of Poland Donald Tusk on the other hand, informed the Polish parliament about intelligence assessments, according to which Russia is planning hybrid attacks with drones and missiles on countries supporting Ukraine.

According to Raski, the intelligence is “very convincing”.

Last week also the president of the republic Alexander Stubb urged citizens in MTV’s “At the heart of the matter” interview to mentally prepare for the fact that sabotage, drone interference, cyber attacks and other hybrid influences can also be seen in Finland.

In addition, the head of the Czech security service estimated for Politico that Russia could carry out a “limited incursion” into the territory of a NATO country already in a matter of months.

On Friday, the Russian state news agency Ria Novosti published a story saying that a new “military special operation” would soon begin in Lithuania, but the story was deleted soon after it was published.

A welcome moment

According to several expert assessments, the purpose of Russia’s actions is to spread fear, increase political confrontation and make Western countries reduce arms aid to Ukraine.

The Polish Prime Minister estimates that Russia’s strategic goal is to weaken NATO’s unity. It means that Russia is trying to create the impression that Article 5 guaranteeing NATO’s collective defense is more of a political promise than a practical security guarantee.

With its hybrid actions, Russia gets valuable information about Europe’s pain points and responsiveness.

The situation is favorable for Russia, because elections will be held in several EU countries next year, such as in Finland, Estonia, Greece, Spain, Slovakia, Poland, France and Italy.

For example, in France, questioning support for Ukraine has already become an election weapon, when the right-wing populist, the pre-favorite for the presidential election Marine Le Pen (rn) has said it is ready to end French financial aid to Ukraine.

Ukraine’s support front is also cracking in other EU countries. In Brussels, it is admitted that many EU countries are starting to have “war weariness” to finance Ukraine.

The situation is not made easier by the fact that European leaders are struggling with rapidly rising fuel prices. The main reason for the increase in prices is the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, but as an additional factor, especially in the price of diesel, Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries affect it.

Why not deliver?

Many may wonder why Russia’s actions are not intervened more strictly.

For example, Stubb has emphasized that the West should avoid reacting to provocations in a way that increases panic or political disunity, because if every suspicion of sabotage leads to political panic or questioning of support for Ukraine, then Russia will achieve its goal.

If the European countries, in their “war weariness”, cannot continue to support Ukraine, it will not only endanger the existence of Ukraine, but also the security of the countries on NATO’s eastern border.

According to Stubb, Russia’s actions must be publicly named. In an interview with Politico, he thanked Germany for showing Russia’s responsibility in the Leipzig case and informed Russia of the consequences.

According to Germany, the consequences mean, among other things, the introduction of new EU sanctions and additional measures against the Russian shadow fleet.

In France, on the other hand, they prepare by increasing the protection of critical infrastructure.

The EU is also looking for ways to respond to hybrid threats. Chairman of the Commission Ursula von der Leyen has proposed to the EU its own “Article 4”, i.e. a security mechanism for situations that fall below the threshold of an actual armed attack.

The idea would be that a member country faced with an attack could call other countries together if it faces serious hybrid threats, such as sabotage, cyber attacks, drone strikes or disruption of critical infrastructure. The purpose would be rapid political coordination of the situation.

For now, the initiative is still in its infancy. According to EU sources, the member states do not yet have a common vision on the mechanism. In addition, some countries oppose the transfer of defense policy authority to Brussels. However, even the commission has not yet presented a detailed model of how the security mechanism works.

Although hybrid operations have become an almost weekly topic of conversation, joint means are few for now.

A normal citizen can’t help but prepare for disturbances and keep a cool head. In Finland this is familiar, but in other parts of Europe it can be more difficult, and Russia knows this.