“The devil he knows”: behind Trump’s support for Netanyahu

Trump has never worked with an Israeli prime minister other than Netanyahu, and he does not personally know any of the other candidates. Over the years the two developed a close, but often stormy relationship. One of Trump’s advisors described his attitude to Netanyahu with the words: “He is the devil he knows.”

After weeks of deliberation, Trump announced last Sunday his support for Netanyahu, and even hinted that his loss in the elections could have consequences for relations between the United States and Israel. However, a US official described the move as a situation where Trump could benefit in any scenario, regardless of the election results.

If Netanyahu wins, or remains in the position of transitional prime minister, Trump will be able to claim that he helped save him politically and use this as a lever of pressure to obtain concessions from him. On the other hand, if Netanyahu loses and his opponents form a government, the new leadership will also have a clear interest in cultivating good relations with the American president. In that case, his previous support for their opponent would quickly become a minor detail.

The opposition around Trump and Vance’s criticism

According to sources familiar with the discussions, many of Trump’s closest advisers opposed his decision to support Netanyahu, out of a view that the president should avoid meddling in the Israeli elections.

According to sources familiar with the positions of senior administration officials, Vance is among the senior officials in Trump’s environment who were disappointed with Netanyahu during the war in Iran. He and other senior officials believe that the assessments that Netanyahu presented to the White House before the war were wrong. This raised doubts about whether Netanyahu remains the most suitable partner to advance Trump’s regional ambitions.

Iran in focus: the decision that awaits Trump after the elections

Netanyahu is interested in moving forward with such an operation, but the results of the Israeli elections may affect Trump’s decision, or at least the timing of the resumption of large-scale fighting.

At the same time, Trump is interested in moving beyond the war in Iran and promoting an ambitious political agenda, which includes the implementation of his peace plan in the Gaza Strip, mediation of agreements between Israel and Lebanon and between Israel and Syria, and ultimately also the achievement of a historic peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Trump’s ability to move towards these goals depends, among other things, on the identity of the government that will be established in Israel and the composition of the coalition that will be formed after the elections on Tuesday.

The frustration in the White House: Gaza, Syria, Lebanon and Judea and Samaria

According to the report, during the past six months, among some of Trump’s top advisers, the feeling of dissatisfaction with Netanyahu on key issues in regional policy has grown.

Against the background of these things, some American officials believe that a new Israeli government, without Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners, may be more comfortable for the American administration to work with.

The polls indicate that Netanyahu is weakening – but without a clear decision

On Friday, Israel’s three main television networks published their last election polls before the polls opened, and all three indicated that Netanyahu’s coalition is far from achieving a majority in the Knesset.

According to the three polls, Netanyahu’s bloc is expected to win only 50 seats out of the 120 Knesset seats, 17 less than the number of seats held by his current coalition. The Likud party, which currently holds 32 mandates, is expected to win only 20 according to the same polls.

The opposition bloc led by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot received between 52 and 56 mandates in the polls, while the two Arab parties together received between 14 and 16 mandates. In the Kaan 11 poll, the Reserve Party, which does not belong to any of the blocs, received four additional mandates.

In contrast, a survey published earlier this week on Channel 14, which is affiliated with Netanyahu, presented a significantly different picture: 60 mandates for the Netanyahu bloc and 30 mandates for Likud.

The concern in Washington: a transitional government and a prolonged political crisis

The results of the polls point to the possibility of a political deadlock, when neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot has a clear path to obtaining the 61 mandates needed to form a government.

In order to form a government, Eisenkot will have to add Arab parties to the coalition, a possibility he has already ruled out, or establish a minority government that will rely on their support from the outside. But even such an arrangement raises objections among some of his possible partners. The possibility of establishing a unity government between Netanyahu and his opponents is also considered highly improbable.

If none of the parties succeeds in forming a majority to form a government, Israel may find itself on the way to another election, with Netanyahu continuing to serve as transitional prime minister.

Thus, instead of leading to the establishment of a new government that will be more attentive to Trump’s political agenda, the elections on Tuesday could leave the American president facing a weakened Netanyahu and an Israeli political system mired in another protracted crisis.