Last-minute diplomatic efforts prevented Iran from re-erupting hostilities

CNN On October 26, citing well-informed sources, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pushed for a coordinated air strike between the US and Israel against Iran, but President Donald Trump’s administration requested to delay any action until Washington is ready.

Netanyahu’s decision to resume attacking Iran was also hindered when General Eyal Zamir, chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), strongly objected, according to Israeli TV channel. Channel 12 reported.

Faced with concerns about reoccurring conflict, high-ranking representatives from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye on October 26 rushed to Tehran to meet with Iran’s leadership.

According to the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Prince and Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman represented the kingdom in the negotiations. Iranian state media said that in addition to Prince Khalid, Tehran also hosted Pakistan Army Commander Asim Munir along with Ibrahim Kalin, head of Turkey’s national intelligence agency.

On the afternoon of October 26, senior officials from the three countries met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei.

A day earlier, Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran to promote an agreement between the US and Iran and prevent regional conflicts from re-erupting, according to Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei. Last week, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also visited Tehran to support diplomatic efforts.

An unnamed Gulf official told NYTimes that the October 26 negotiations were intended to support the mediation efforts of Qatar and Pakistan, and urged Iran to be more flexible in finding a diplomatic solution with the US. US President Donald Trump once announced that the US could resume air strikes on Iran immediately after the midterm congressional elections on November 3.

Ali Vaez, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the International Crisis Group (ICG), said the negotiations were a “last-minute effort” to turn the situation around before the US and Israel actually act.

“The visit took place in the context of increasingly frequent signals of war, both sides continuously increasing threats, tougher stances, and diplomatic space narrowing day by day,” Mr. Vaez said.

Two diplomats familiar with the negotiations said Qatar is pushing for an agreement, under which the US and Iran will respectively make concessions within five days. Specifically, Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial ships to pass through, and the US will lift the naval blockade on Iranian seaports, which has worsened the country’s economic crisis.

The biggest hurdle is determining when each side makes its move. Intermediaries also urged Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program in the early stages of the agreement.

Iran has repeatedly rejected requests to transfer part of its enriched uranium stockpile. Last week, Mr. Rezaei announced that Tehran would not let “even a single grain of enriched nuclear material” leave the country.

Iranian officials warned that Tehran would expand its attack targets to data centers and underground network cables in the region if the country continued to be attacked.

The Saudi Arabian Defense Minister’s participation in this diplomatic effort is a notable move, in the context of deeply tense relations between the two countries, when Riyadh regularly faces attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces, according to NYTimes commentator Erika Solomon.

Sending Prince Khalid, younger brother and trusted special envoy of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, to Tehran shows that Riyadh wants to prevent a new war from breaking out between Iran and the US and Israel. The resurgence of conflict could cause Saudi Arabia to suffer more attacks from Iran, while the country is having to deal with the Houthis.

“This move shows that Saudi Arabia does not want tensions to escalate and is worried that Israel will drag Mr. Trump into a new round of conflict,” said Ali Shihabi, a commentator familiar with the views of Riyadh’s leadership.

Adam Rasgon, NYTimes commentator, said that the visit of Middle Eastern officials has symbolic meaning for Iran, in the context that Tehran wants to exclude the US from regional security and diplomatic mechanisms.

President Pezeshkian declared that Iran is “ready to strengthen regional cooperation, resolve disagreements, promote the common potential of Muslim countries and support all agreements that help strengthen solidarity, cohesion, security and development in the region”.

However, an Iranian official with knowledge of the negotiations appeared cautious. “I want to be optimistic, but the overall picture does not support my wishes,” this person said.

Ibrahim Fraihat, a professor of international conflict resolution at the Doha Institute of Advanced Studies, said many in the region believe the midterm parliamentary elections may have delayed the US attack on Iran. After the election, Mr. Trump will likely decide to act.

Meanwhile, this week’s election in Israel serves as a referendum on Mr. Netanyahu, who recently announced that he had ordered the military and intelligence to find ways to overthrow the Iranian government.

“Everyone is waiting to see if Netanyahu wins the election,” said Paul Musgrave, an associate professor of government at Georgetown University, adding that there is a growing sense of anxiety in Qatar and the region.

Fraihat said Qatar and the Gulf countries have considered the possibility of hostilities re-erupting, leading to the risk of them once again becoming the target of attacks by Iranian missiles and UAVs.

“What’s worrying is that both sides seem to be preparing for a war that neither side can win or easily control, and neither side knows how to end it,” Vaez said.