La Jornada: The IMF raises Mexico’s GDP forecast and reduces the global one

Despite the international context marked by the armed conflict in the Middle East, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the growth forecast for the Mexican economy in 2026 to 1.6 percent, after last January it estimated that the advance would be 1.5 percent.

For 2027, the international organization’s projection rose to 2.1 to 2.2 percent.

Global economic growth will be 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027, a slowdown compared to the 3.4 percent advance recorded in 2025, according to the Executive Summary of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Report, which was presented within the framework of the organization’s spring meetings.

Estimates of global economic activity are below the historical average growth presented between 2000 and 2019, which was 3.7 percent.

“Without the war, global growth would have been revised upwards. In fact, forecasts based on pre-conflict assumptions would have shown a slight upward revision of 2026 growth compared to that forecast in January, by 0.1 percentage points, to reach 3.4 percent,” he said.

The downward revision to 2026 largely reflects disruptions from the Middle East conflict, partially offset by the cumulative effect of recent positive data and tariff reductions.

“Once again, the global economy is threatened with a change of course, this time by the outbreak of war in the Middle East,” highlighted the IMF.

Over the past year, headwinds from higher trade barriers and heightened uncertainty have been offset by favorable factors: investment in technology, favorable financial conditions, including a weaker US dollar, and support from fiscal and monetary policies.

The armed conflict “significantly offsets these factors due to its impact on commodity markets, inflation expectations and financial conditions,” he noted.

As for global inflation, it is expected to increase to 4.4 percent in 2026 and decrease to 3.7 percent in 2027, which implies upward adjustments for both years.

“While the revisions to growth and inflation appear relatively modest on a global scale, the impact on the conflict region and on the most vulnerable economies in other parts of the world – particularly those emerging and developing, importers of raw materials with pre-existing frailties – is much more pronounced,” he warned.

The increase in the price of oil could generate restrictions on the financing of economies because, in a “serious” scenario, central banks would have to raise interest rates, admitted Tobias Adrian, financial advisor and director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, at a press conference.