How long has it been since Argentina avoided a global crisis?

The war between the United States and Israel against Iran began on February 28. Since then the price of oil skyrocketed and there was a movement of capital to the dollar as a refuge. Last week the IMF in its World Economic Outlook report did not rule out a global recession scenario. However, it seems that this conflict did not prevent the Central Bank’s interventions from exceeding 5% of the volume traded in the market. Yesterday the main indicators on Wall Street fell again and oil futures rose for the fourth consecutive round. And Santiago Bausili bought again: this time for US$ 194 million. Even in that context this Thursday Chubut placed debt and managed to close a rate of less than 10%.

How long has it been since Argentina weathered a global crisis, or at least such uncertainty, by buying dollars and with the currency not depreciating?

Former Minister of Economy Nicolás Dujovne, who has been monitoring the behavior of emerging markets in such contexts for decades, responds that he does not remember having seen the Argentine economy facing global turbulence like the one that has investors in suspense today. At least so far.

“During this crisis, the peso ended stronger than it started. Regardless of whether we are doing well or poorly at the local level with the economy, what is certain is that with twin deficits and importing energy, I don’t know what kind of crisis we would be in today.”says economist Gustavo Araujo, Head of Research at Criteria.

On Thursday the Vice Minister of Economy, José Luis Daza, said that “It is possible this year we will have a current account surplus.” The data is relevant because a current account deficit measures the fragility of a country against the swallow capitals and that is compensated with more reserves.

Why was Santiago Bausili able to buy more dollars in these months?

Days ago, the economist Martín Polo, Cohen’s boss, showed an The trade balance and the liquidation of US$6.8 billion of ON by companies that issued since October also help.

The problem is that this robustness of the Argentine economy is not being perceived on the street. Of course it doesn’t have to. This Thursday, for example, it emerged that sales in supermarkets in February fell and this week it was learned that economic activity did as well (2.6%).

The 1816 report is forceful: “The demand for liquidity reached its lowest nominal value of the year this Monday.”

What does this mean? That on the one hand the Central Bank is strengthened by buying dollars but The demand for pesos has not yet caught on and the monetary base is contracting.

The virtuous circle of this economy that resists the international onslaught and buys dollars at the same time, may be completely closed if the Government is able to refinance the bondholders’ payments.

Otherwise, the effort to buy dollars and use them to pay the cash coupons becomes too demanding even when there are signs that inflation this month began to ease and activity, according to the consulting firms Equilibra and Nielsen, would register a recovery in March.