The price of wheat shoots up 30% due to the crisis in the Middle East and has been at its highest since June 2024

Far from normalization, Global trade continues to be affected by restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz which remains practically impassable: in the last sixty days only 356 ships managed to enter or leave, about half of the usual weekly traffic. In this context, the rise in energy prices—with Brent above US$107 per barrel—is already having a full impact on the global economy and agricultural production costs.

The wheat market is one of the most sensitive to this new scenario, according to a report from the Rosario Stock Exchange. It is a crop highly dependent on nitrogen fertilizers.whose prices skyrocketed in line with energy. This began to be reflected in productive decisions: in Australia, where planting has already started, area cuts of between 4% and 12% are projected, while in Argentina an adjustment in the area is also anticipated shortly before the start of the campaign.

In the United States, the situation adds another pressure factor, added the Rosario Stock Exchange: lThe drought has affected winter wheat for weeks. Currently, only 19% of the area does not have water stress, while 35% of the crops are in poor or very poor condition, 15 percentage points above last year. All this occurs in a campaign that is already shaping up to be the one with the smallest planted area since official records exist.

This combo radically modified market expectations. From a scenario of global abundance, with ample stocks, we moved to the possibility of supply cuts. The reaction was immediate: wheat in Chicago rose from US$190 per ton at the end of January to US$246 in the last week, a jump of 30% and the highest level since June 2024.

In Argentina, the trend accompanies but with particularities. Cereal futures have advanced between 12% and 17% since Januarywith the July 2026 contract adding US$ 25 per ton. However, the most relevant data is the change in the market structure: from an “inverted” scheme it was changed to a “carry” scheme until January 2027. This reflects the expectation of a tighter supply in the future, encouraging the retention of merchandise.

In parallel, The milling industry faces an increasingly complex scenario. In addition to the quality problems of wheat, with a shortage of batches suitable for baking, there are now difficulties in obtaining volume. During the first four months of the 2025/26 cycle, milling reached 1.96 million tons, just 1% more than the previous year, despite a record harvest of 27.9 million tons, 50% higher than the previous campaign.

“The growth of milling is very far from reflecting the magnitude of the harvest,” he warned. Diego Cifarelliwho also pointed out that “it was never projected that, with a historical production, we could face supply problemsAs he explained, although the mills are willing to pay better prices for quality wheat, the merchandise does not appear in the necessary volumes.

As of April 15, exports had acquired 14.47 million tons, well above the 9.66 million of the previous year, while milling barely added 2.60 million, practically unchanged year-on-year. Among the possible causes of this dynamic are the greater liquidity of producers due to corn sales, also with a record harvest, and the deterioration of the purchasing power of wheat in the face of the increase in inputs.

The outlook for the future generates concern in the sector. Official projections estimate a grinding of 7.2 million tons for the 2025/26 cycleabove previous years. However, the industry warns that, if current conditions persist, this objective will not be achieved. “This implies less Argentine work and less value added at origin,” Cifarelli summarized.