Lower withholdings for wheat and barley: prices for the producer would have an improvement of more than 2%

On the other hand, the increase in prices that the producer receives would have a improvement greater than 2%which implies an increase around US$ 5 per tonboth for available merchandise and for harvest contracts.

This is what the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR)based on the merchandise that still remains to be exported from the 2025/26 cycle and the production estimates for the 2026/27 campaign, which has only just begun to be planted in small areas of the national agricultural region.

In a context of increased production costs (increase in fertilizers and fuel) due to the war in the Middle East and tight margins, the announced measure would partly improve the profitability of producers.

In this sense, the BCR projected that the measure could increase the payment capacity of exporters and industries between 2,3% y 2,4%. Thus, the improvement in prices that the producer would receive would be between US$ 4,8 y US$ 4,9 per ton up to almost US$ 229,4 the ton for the available merchandise.

Regarding the fiscal impact that this 2 percentage point reduction in winter cereal export duties would have, the stock exchange entity made the calculation based on what remains to be exported in the current commercial cycle and the production and shipment projections for the next campaign, which only begins in December of this year. So, The state would stop receiving US$ 107.2 million in this concept.

Regarding the current 2025/26, there are still 5.3 million tons of wheat, 500,000 tons of malting barley and 200,000 tons of fodder barley to be sold abroad. “Taking the average FOB prices for the June-November period of the current year, the fiscal cost for wheat amounts to US$ 26.2 million, while for barley it totals US$ 3.3 million”, detailed the Rosario Stock Exchange.

“This cost could even be reduced if it is assumed that the reduction in withholdings encourages external sales, and brings total exports for the 2025/26 wheat cycle to 20 million tons. In that case, the fiscal cost would be just US$ 12.7 million for winter cereal,” the work clarified.

The bulk of the fiscal cost would occur in the following campaign, whose production and export estimates are still very preliminary, although it is already discounted that both the volume to be harvested and shipped would be lower than what was recorded in the current cycle.

Based on the planting intention projected in May, the total fiscal cost of the measure amounts to US$ 78 million between wheat and barleywhich could be compensated “by the increase in production and external trade ahead of the final campaign.”

“As a reference, if 2026/27 wheat exports rise to 13.5 million tons, the fiscal cost of the measure is reduced to US$ 47 million for that cereal; while, if they rise to 14.5 million, the cost adjusts to US$ 34 million,” exemplified the BCR.

Coinciding with the Rosario Stock Exchange, the consulting firm AZ-Group estimated that if the volume of wheat that remains to be exported from the 2025/26 campaign is considered, “The treasury would stop collecting around US$ 24 million”.

“The calculations are as follows: starting from a potential export of 19 million tons and there is already DJVE for 13.7 million tons, there would be 5.3 million left to export that would pay the new rate of export duties. With today’s FOB price of US$ 229 per ton, US$ 24 million would not be collected, by losing 4.56 per FOB ton,” said Nicolás Udaquiola, director of the consulting firm.