What will happen to the dollar during the World Cup: the Government’s strategy to avoid a rise while buying reserves

It is a move that they observed in the market as a novelty in recent weeks, especially since June began, and that aims to keep investors in pesos. The exchange rate marked a “ceiling” near $1,450 in its wholesale price and from that point it fell again.

In the city they recorded that the Central Bank adopted a new strategy to be able to continue with a considerable rate of reserve purchases, but without letting the exchange rate slip.

for that went to the bond sale dollar-linkedtied to the dollar, which are those that protect holders against eventual exchange movements. There are a variety of titles that meet this characteristic. They are issued by the Ministry of Economy, but the Central Bank has them in its portfolio and can use them in the market.

It is one of the ways of more indirect “intervention” to which the monetary authority can resort, as well as future dollar contracts. Clarion He said that the BCRA is fine-tuning a US$22 billion package of firepower, beyond the currency cushion, for potential exchange pressures in the months before the elections.

Different market analysts have reported on these movements in recent weeks. “The Central purchases coincided with a clear signal that the economic team did not want him spot (official dollar) continues to rise“, observed the financial consultancy 1816.

But they mentioned that there was no intervention with dollar sales (in fact, it continues to string together purchases) or with future dollars, but rather with bonds tied to the dollar. His estimate was operations per US$ 900 million in just five wheels.

Portfolio Personal Investments (PPI), for its part, calculated that at the end of the week those types of interventions subsided and they went from a daily average of US$630 million in the first part of the month to US$250 million at the start of last week. And they presume, even without official data, that they have a certain lag, which in the last days of last week should have been close to zero.

In any case, 1816 estimated that “the stock of sovereign securities dollar-linked in private hands has already reached the levels it reached in the run-up to the 2025 elections“, which indicates that there exists in that segment a high level of coverage against possible exchange pressures.

After having reached the first annual reserve purchase objective (US$ 10,000 million) in the first days of this month, PPI measured that “June’s performance is still not up to par with that of previous months.” While in April and May the Central took in almost US$ 140 million per day on average, it has now dropped to US$ 90 million.

Beyond the BCRA’s strategy of keeping the dollar stable, the income of foreign currency from the harvest, mining and energy exports and from the placement of debt in dollars of companies and provinces traces a horizon of “surplus” currency, at least this year.

“In 2026 it is expected that there are no greater exchange tensions“summarized a report from Fundación Capital, the consulting firm Martin Redradothis Tuesday. By 2027, the party will be different because, he estimates, there are a missing “gap” of US$ 18,000 million due to debt maturities to be covered and greater potential portfolio dollarization before the elections.

To close this “gap”, Fundación Capital mentioned that, due to the latest drop in country risk, “the authorities could return to international markets with a placement that contributes to clearing the 2027 financial program.”

There was, in this first half of the year, a kind of “silent partner” of the BCRA on the path of marked currency accumulation. It is the name chosen by a study by the Economic Studies Management of Banco Provincia. That “partner” would be manufacturing industry.

The bank’s analysts calculated that, due to the drop in manufacturing activity so far this year, the sector required US$ 2,000 million less than the average of recent years for the purchase of imported inputs, which would have helped the Central Bank to purchase foreign currency in the market that other market players do not demand.