Copper, gold, silver and lithium: the bottlenecks and obstacles that still remain for mining takeoff

He copperwith projects that together total more than US$ 30,000 million, collides with a energy bottleneck that can condition everything.

He oro crosses a map divided between projects that expand and operations that survive thanks to prices, while heto pay still carry with withholdings.

He lithium, what is in full expansion with investments of US$ 9,000 million, also pays withholdings, which represent a logic different from that of the incentives that the RIGI aims to consolidate.

The energy infrastructure It is a critical condition for the development of large-scale copper in Argentina, and today it presents one of the most specific bottlenecks in the sector.

The most illustrative case is the 500 kV high voltage line in San Juan and the tension that was unleashed by granting priority use to the copper project Vicunafrom the giant BHP and Lundin, which only for the first stage committed an investment with RIGI of US$9.7 billion.

The decision generated a broad opposition headed by another mining company Mc Ewen Cooper, which is also advancing in the development of its project The Blueswith a RIGI approved by US$2.7 billionwhich was expressed in a public hearing. The resolution of the ENREGE (former Enre) on that line is pending for the first days of July. Meanwhile, the dispute may have direct impact on the financial viability of the projects.

Gold and silver present the most heterogeneous picture. There is not a single story to tell, but several that coexist on the same map. On the one hand, there are the two largest mines in the country in production: Cerro Negrofrom Newmont, in Santa Cruz, which will invest US$800 million to extend its useful life at least until 2035, and Sailboatfrom Barrick and the Chinese Shandong Gold, in San Juan, with a RIGI approved by US$380 million for its expansion.

Also expanding, Gualcamayofrom the family and international holding company AISA Group, has an approved RIGI of US$665 million to launch the new Carbonatos Profundos mine in San Juan.

But, on the other hand, there is a set of operations, some smaller and in an advanced production stage, whose situation is very different. They are not in a position to expand nor to commit significant investments and Its continuity depends almost exclusively on the international price of goldwhich remains at historically high levels. If that price were to fall abruptly, several of those operations would cease to be economically viable.

Behind that map there is a structural feature that defines the segment: gold and silver are sitting on mature mines. There is no new generation of projects in the near horizon, except the project Diablillosfrom the Canadian AbraSilver in Salta, which is the only gold project with real prospects of joining the production map in the coming years.

This lack of replacement has a specific geographical consequence for Santa Cruz, which with seven mines is today the province that leads the production of metalliferous mineralsbut it does not have new projects that will sustain that leadership when they exhaust their useful life.

Added to this panorama is a specific difficulty for silver: withholdings. Silver is one of the two minerals that pay a 4.5% rate as export dutyand the sector does not find a reasonable justification for this, especially in a context of imminent mine closures.

He lithium is the segment with greater dynamism at this time. The works are advancing, financing is committed and the projects add installed capacity in a concrete way.

Rio Tinto’s Rincón project in Salta is advancing with an estimated investment of US$2.7 billionof which US$ 1,175 million son financed by multilateral organizations such as IFC, IDB Invest, Export Finance Australia and JBIC. He level of interest of those organizations in Argentine projects It has no recent precedents.

Assets in operation and expansion are added to Rincón for an approximate total of US$2.8 billion: Olaroz (Exar), in Jujuy, and Fénix (Rio Tinto), Sal de Oro (Posco) and Hombre Muerto Oeste (Galan) in Catamarca. However, lithium shares with silver what the sector demands to be corrected: 4.5% withholdings on exports.

He claim for the elimination of this tax is a widespread position in the sector and it is argued that, if the objective is to maximize the capture of investment in a strategic mineral for the global energy transition, the retentions operate in the opposite direction and, above all, weigh since the price fell in 2023 abruptly from 80,000 to 10,000 dollars per ton.

The opportunities are real, but the obstacles are specific: they vary by mineral, by stage and by project. Policy decisions on energy infrastructure, withholdings or regulation have different effects depending on who they reach.