La Jornada: Border closure with the US cost livestock farming up to $3 billion

During the 19 months that the United States kept its border closed to Mexican cattle due to the presence of the screwworm, the country’s livestock industry accumulated losses estimated by various sources to be between $2.4 billion and nearly $3 billion, in addition to a backlog in herd capitalization that the industry will carry for longer than the duration of the U.S. ban.

The closure, which began in November 2014 after the parasite was detected in Chiapas, interrupted the shipment of calves and heifers to U.S. feedlots, a flow that year represented 1.26 million head of cattle valued at $1.206 billion.

The Mexican Meat Council (ComeCarne) estimated that between November 2024 and June 2026, 2.063 million head of cattle, valued at approximately 34.815 billion pesos (US$2.755 billion), went unsold. In the first half of 2026 alone, the organization recorded 748,000 head of cattle that went unexported, valued at US$1.041 billion.

Rogelio Pérez Sánchez, director of strategic projects and international relations at the National Confederation of Livestock Organizations (CNOG), placed the sector’s opportunity cost at US$2.5 billion.

“There was a negative impact on breeders because there was no incentive to expand their herds due to speculation on low prices,” he noted. Faced with uncertainty about export destinations, producers opted to postpone investments.

For its part, the Agricultural Markets Consulting Group estimates that 1.97 million head of cattle were not exported during the period of restrictions, resulting in a loss of $2.4 billion in foreign exchange earnings. To that figure, it added, was an additional opportunity cost of $592 million for producers, who had to sell their animals on the domestic market at prices lower than export rates. That is, almost $3 billion in total.

The average price of a calf destined for the United States was around $1,200 per head, compared to $900 on the domestic market, a difference of $300 per animal absorbed by exporting cattle ranchers in Chihuahua, Sonora, Durango, Tamaulipas, and Coahuila.

The blow was not limited to the Mexican side. The same organization calculated that the cattle that stopped crossing the border would have generated a potential production of 731,000 tons of carcass meat, valued at $6.24 billion for the U.S. industry.

Feedlots in that country saw reduced income from housing and feed, while packing plants operated with less available cattle for slaughter. This shortage was passed on to the end consumer, who saw ground beef approach $7 per pound and some sirloin cuts exceed $14.

For Pérez Sánchez, the current scenario contrasts sharply with the one the production chain faced during the closure. “With the reopening of exports, the entire chain improves,” he stated, referring to the shift in expectations that now allows producers to reconsider expanding their herds.