In the Nordic electricity market, hydropower and available water reserves will affect the price outlook next winter, says someone who follows the development of the electricity market The Finnish Confederation of Business and Industry EK energy market expert Arttu Karila.
Karila reminds that if autumn brings plenty of rain, especially to Norway, wind power produces well and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is resolved, the current price pressure related to electricity may ease.
“A rainy autumn could improve the water situation in the Nordic countries and reduce the scarcity priced by the market. If the rains fall especially in Southern Norway, the impact could be considerable in terms of the Nordic electricity market.”
“Electricity consumers should hope for a rainy autumn – especially in Norway,” Karila writes in a memo published by EK on Tuesday.
According to Karila, development can also go in the other direction if autumn remains dry and winter starts cold.
“If, on the other hand, water reserves remain low and the winter starts cold and with little wind, the Nordic electricity market may see a significantly greater scarcity than at present.”
Rains.
Electricity consumers should hope for a rainy autumn, says Arttu Karila, an energy market expert at the Confederation of Finnish Business.
PHOTO: Markku Lempinen
Nuclear power evens out price fluctuations
According to Karila, there is no reason to lock in the electricity price outlook for next winter. In the end, the price of electricity is always determined by how production and consumption coincide.
“Next winter’s price outlook may therefore still look very different in a few months,” Karila reminds.
According to Karila, in addition to the water situation, the availability of nuclear power will also significantly affect Finland’s electricity market next winter. The situation of Olkiluoto 3 is particularly important.
“Olkiluoto 3 and its approximately 1,600 MW production is a significant part of Finland’s electricity system. No annual maintenance is planned for the power plant in 2027, which strengthens the outlook for Finland’s electricity production compared to the year when annual maintenance limits production,” Karila writes.
“One large and steadily operating production plant can be a significant factor, especially in situations where hydropower production possibilities are weak.”