August inflation: CPI could approach the lowest number in the Milei era

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) lowest so far in this Government was 1.5% in May 2025. It was followed by the following month, 1,9% in June. If August recorded 1,4%would mark a new low since the beginning of the administration. If it is between 1,6% y 1,9%would be the second lowest number.

This Tuesday the Buenos Aires CPI will be knownwhich will be disseminated by the Institute of Statistics and Censuses of the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (Idecba), which, although it cannot be extrapolated to the entire country, is a first indication.

The expected slowdown for August responds to several factors. The relative dollar stability helped reduce price pressure; while the behavior of the meatmore moderate than months ago; just like that of the fuelsin the midst of the “freezing” of prices determined by YPF.

The lower incidence of seasonal factors also contributed. that boosted inflation in July, linked to winter vacation tourism.

Private consulting firms estimate a wide range, but they all agree that August would have ended with inflation below 2%. The most optimistic projection is that of Freedom and Progress Foundationwhich calculates an increase of 1,4%.

They follow him EcoGocon 1,5%; C&T Economic Advisorscon 1,6%; Analyticacon 1,7%; e Invecqcon 1,9%. Orlando Ferreresfor its part, also estimated 1.6% although with a core inflation (which rules out seasonal and regulated prices) of 0,7%.

Meanwhile, the Survey of Market Expectations (REM) that publishes every month on Banco Central pointed to a slowdown: the median of the projections of consulting firms, research centers and financial entities was located at 1,7% for August.

To C&T“the lower rate of increase was explained by the decline in seasonal components such as tourism e dress played in the same sensebut not fruits and vegetables, which once again registered increases: Food and beverages increased 1.7%similar to the increase in July, with a little more dynamism in the former and less in the latter.”

“Home equipment and maintenance was the item with the greatest increase in the monthdriven by the adjustment in salaries for domestic service and cleaning products. Various goods and services grew somewhat less due to the dynamics of cigarettes and toiletries and beauty items. Housing maintained the recent pace close to 2,5%while health rose 2%“, he detailed Camilo Tiscorniade C&T.

“August was a month of low inflationwith the reversal of seasonal price increases. Probably, the core will give around 1.8%. Going forward, we will have to see what happens with the exchange rate, which for now is calm, and its impact on prices. For September, we estimate 2%“, he highlighted Sebastian Menescaldifrom EcoGo.

The question is whether the August slowdown can be sustained in the coming months and allow monthly inflation to start at zero, a promise that the Government had made for last month.

Economists are cautious and warn that 1.5% could be the new floor in the last months of 2026a fact that would be complex to drill due to the persistent pressure from the monthly increases in regulated rates and services.

Although the projections are still far from the official goal of the index starting with zero, The slowdown is significant if you look at the trajectory since the beginning of his administration.: passed from 211% when Milei took over 31% current, a drop of 85%. The trend still needs to be consolidated.