They project a moderate increase in the soybean area: 17 million hectares

The increase would be explained by a combination of agronomic and economic factors. The main movement would occur in the north of the agricultural areawhere the pressure from Dalbulus maidis, known as leafhopper, reduces the intention to plant corn and frees up surface area that could be converted to soybeans. Added to this is that, in these regions, the gross margin ratio is relatively more favorable for the oilseed.

The scenario will not be uniform throughout the country. While the north would concentrate a good part of the expansion, other areas would show reductions. The Grain Exchange warns that, in the central region, behavior would be heterogeneous and would be strongly conditioned by climate prospects. In the North Core and the Central-East of Entre Ríos, early corn would be positioned above prime soybeans, despite the fact that the latter presents better relative margins, due to the conditions expected for a year under the influence of El Niño.

However, the possibility of excess water could modify that decision. If the rains hinder the early implantation of corn, part of that area could end up destined for first-class soybeans. In the South Core, on the other hand, a moderate increase in the soybean area is projected, mainly associated with a greater availability of plots due to the smaller surface area allocated to fine crops.

The situation will be different in the west and center of Buenos Aires. There, the soybean area would be reduced compared to the previous season. In the west, the lower intention to plant fine crops would limit second-class soybean plantings, while sunflower and early corn would gain space as alternatives for first-class plantings. In the center of Buenos Aires there would also be competition from these crops.

In the south of the agricultural area, for its part, the smaller area allocated to winter crops would leave more lots available for summer crops. But the greater intention to plant sunflower and early corn would limit first-class soybean plantings and would lead to a slight decrease in the total area of ​​the oilseed.

Thus, the projected increase in the north would more than compensate for the decreases projected in the central and southern regions, allowing the national surface area to reach 17 million hectares. Expansion, however, is not guaranteed: The Grain Exchange warns that possible excess water could prevent the fulfillment of sowing plans within the optimal window.

The beginning of the campaign finds a good part of the central region with soil profiles that present a adequate humidity and that would allow a good start of the first lots of premium soybeans around mid-October. But the panorama presents contrasts: to the east there persist sectors with excess water that has not yet finished draining, while to the west the reserves are tighter.

In that context, the campaign could start with mostly loaded profilesalthough excessive rain appears as a specific threat to the progress of work. The report states that heavy rainfall could make access to the lots difficult and reduce the chances of completing the implementation within the optimal window.

The development of El Niño will be another of the determining factors. The phenomenon would gradually advance until reaching full force during the beginning of spring. Under this scenario, a good part of Mesopotamia and sectors of the center and east of the Pampas Region could receive higher than normal rains, with intense events capable of complicating planting tasks.

During the summer of 2027, when El Niño would reach its maximum expression, the rains would be concentrated over northern Mesopotamia and the north of the Pampas Region. There the risk of flooding would increase and, with it, the health pressure on the crops. The southern Pampas would also receive contributions moderately above the average.

The climate impact could extend until the harvest. By the fall of 2027, although El Niño would begin to dissipate, its cumulative effects could coincide with the advancement of soybean harvesting. The north of Mesopotamia and the north of the Pampas Region would maintain high risks of floods and riverine flooding, while in the south of the Pampas, flooding could persist in low-lying areas.

On the economic side, Soybeans arrive in the pre-season with an improvement in prices that contributes to regaining competitiveness compared to other crops. For 2026/27, the USDA projects a record global production of 442.25 million tons, 3% more than the previous campaign and 11.3% above the average of the last five cycles.

The United States would produce 123 million tons, while Brazil would reach a record of 186 million tons. Despite this greater supply, the international market would not show an equivalent accumulation of stocks, due to the growth of industrial demand, especially for the production of soybean meal and oil.

World crushing is projected at 384.76 million tons, almost 11 million more than in the previous campaign. As a result, final stocks would reach 124.21 million tons, 0.7% less year-on-year, while the stock/consumption ratio would drop slightly to 28.1%.

The firmness of demand and the performance of by-products helped sustain international values. The average available price of soybeans for September 2026 is US$479 per ton, 28% above the value a year ago. Soybean oil also reached US$1,561 per ton, with a year-on-year improvement of 38%, while flour reached US$377, 24% more.

The comparison with other crops also favors the oilseed. Corn registers a year-on-year increase of 30%, while wheat presents an increase of 69%, in a context marked by persistent conflicts in the Black Sea. In the local market, soybeans with delivery until May 2027 are trading at around US$358 per ton, 21% more than in the previous campaign and 12% above the average of the last five cycles.

Improving prices does not eliminate cost pressure. In the July-August-September period, the price of fuel registered a year-on-year increase of 50.5% and was 44% above the average of the last five campaigns.. The impact is especially relevant in the NOA and NEA, where transportation has a greater weight within the cost structure.

Herbicides used on soybeans also increased: recorded a year-on-year increase of 29.2%, although they are still 28.2% below the average of the last five campaigns. Nitrogen fertilizers, on the other hand, showed a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, while phosphate fertilizers rose 9.5%.

In input-output relationships, soybeans lost purchasing power compared to fuel, as a result of the increase in diesel. However, the improvement in the price of the oilseed largely offsets the increase in costs in most regions, according to the Grain Exchange.

Added to this scenario is a trade policy factor: the scheme for the progressive reduction of export duties for soybeans. The rate, currently at 24%, would drop to 21% towards the end of 2027, which would improve the net price received by producers and sustain margins.