Dear energy, inflation soars to 4.2% in September

Soaring inflation in Italy: according to preliminary data fromStatein September rises on an annual basis to 4,2% from the previous 3.3% and above expectations which indicated 3.8%. On a monthly basis, it rises to 0.7% from the previous 0.5% and against the estimated 0.3%. Istat explains that inflation is still influenced by the growth in prices of energy goods (from +17.1% to +22.3%). In the food sector, prices show an accelerating trend (from +1.0% to +1.8%), due entirely to the unprocessed component (from +3.8% to +5.5%), which is reflected in the “shopping cart” (and +0,9% and +1,7%).

Services and underlying inflation

Support for inflation is also due to tensions on the prices of recreational, cultural and personal care services (from +2.6% to +2.9%) and those relating to transport (from +0.8% to +1.6%). THE’underlying inflation calculated net of energy and fresh food, it rises from +1.5% to +1.7%, as does that net of energy goods alone, from +1.7% to +2.0% while the average annual variation, acquired in September, at +3.1%. The prices of transport services (-2.5%) and those of processed foods (-0.3%) decreased on a monthly basis.

In September 2026 inflation rises to 4.2% from 3.3% in August. The acceleration is driven above all by energy goods, +22.3% on an annual basis, and unprocessed food, +5.5%.
The “shopping cart” grows by 1.7%. https://t.co/8kBFLZVYdo#Istat #PrezziAlConsumo pic.twitter.com/WHIr9snsa9

— Istat (@istat_it) September 30, 2026

Istat, consumer confidence drops

In the month ending today, both consumer confidence and the composite business confidence indicator decreased (from 94.5 to 91.2 and from 97.0 to 95.9, respectively). Istat always detects this.

With reference to businesses, explains Istat, there is an improvement in confidence only in manufacturing (the index rises from 90.2 to 91.9). Instead, in services and construction the index is declining: in market services the index drops from 99.4 to 96.9 and in retail trade it drops from 106.5 to 104.5, in construction the indicator decreases from 102.8 to 97.5.

As for the components of the confidence indices, in manufacturing an improvement is estimated in the assessments on orders while the assessments on inventories of finished products remain substantially stable. Expectations on the level of production decrease. In construction, both variables recorded a worsening. Moving on to the market services sector, a negative dynamic of all components is highlighted. In trade, there is a positive trend in assessments on sales while the related expectations worsen, the balance of assessments on the level of warehouse stocks decreases.

“The climate of business confidence – comments Istat – decreases after three consecutive months of growth. The negative change is due to the weakening of the index in the services and construction sectors. Positive signals come from the assessments on orders and demand in the manufacturing sector and those on sales in the retail trade. As regards consumers, it should be noted that the economic climate of confidence climates and related balances estimated in September 2026 is affected in part of some changes regarding the organization of the detection network, net of the estimated effects attributable to these changes, it is noted a moderate reduction in the overall and personal climate of trustcurrent and future, while the economic climate records a slightly more marked decline”.