VDSC: Profit growth of businesses in the fourth quarter may be the lowest in a year

According to data from Rong Viet Securities (VDSC), in the third quarter, profit after tax of parent company shareholders of businesses on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HoSE) increased by 53% compared to the same period last year. The company said that the last quarter’s results were reinforced by a positive picture of the economy when many key industry groups such as banking, construction, materials, industrial parks and technology maintained positive growth rates.

Among them, the profits of real estate companies improved the most, at 32%, including large contributions from Vingroup and Vinhomes. The bank ranked second in growth momentum with 10%. The business results of the retail group also continued to go up, while technology, chemicals and stocks were under downward pressure.

By the fourth quarter, VDSC forecasts that net profits of listed companies will increase by about 24% over the same period last year. However, this growth rate has slowed down and is the lowest since the third quarter of 2025.

In the same vein, SSI Research also forecasts that profit growth may continue to slow down in the last quarter of the year due to high comparisons, especially in industries related to goods and retail. In addition, some businesses that have exceeded their yearly profit plan after 9 months may increase expense provisions in the last quarter of the year.

In particular, non-financial and insurance groups will be the two driving forces for the market, with a profit improvement of over 40%. Banks maintain high stability with growth rates of more than double digits.

The consumer goods and retail industries continue to benefit from increased commodity prices, instead of improved output. The group’s profit margin may have peaked around mid-2026. The energy group, with the main contribution from thermal power, is expected to record high profit growth thanks to electricity consumption and selling prices remaining high.

The oil and gas group, which is mainly upstream and midstream companies, reported lower profits than estimates, mainly due to large costs. However, VDSC believes that these costs are more one-time than long-term. In addition, the large volume of work and high maintenance costs will be the driving force for the group’s revenue and profit growth in the fourth quarter.