Caputo’s secret: why the dollar remains calm while country risk soars and how long the calm can last

In other words, the world caught a cold, but Argentina did not get sick like on other occasions, despite the shock that Donald Trump’s electoral defeat meantin a context of rising rates and strengthening of the dollar globally, which puts pressure on Argentina.

What was Luis Caputo’s secret? A combination of discreet measures arranged by your economic team.

Specifically, analysts observed pressures in the exchange market, but they were contained by the government’s intervention to stabilize it. The main reaction was the Central Bank’s run, adding five wheels without purchases in two weeks. Each day without acquiring foreign currency is less accumulation of reserves and less issuance of pesos.

With the band ceiling around $1,949, the wholesaler touched $1,551 last Tuesday and closed the week at $1,545 (0.7%). It was his fourth consecutive weekly rise, with rising hedging demand in futures and bonds tied to the exchange rate (dollar-linked). This Monday and Tuesday there was no exchange market due to the Pope’s visit. Only this Wednesday will it operate again.

The other measure came from the Treasury. With the pesos it has in the Central Bank (BCRA), it is calculated that bought US$ 129 million to complete the interest payment of US$ 880 million to the Monetary Fund. And with the pesos that Banco Nación has, it is estimated that bought bonds in pesos for about $2 billion to apparently put a ceiling on rates.

Where the tensions were noticed was in the parallel market. Cash with settlement (CCL) accelerated 1.1% last week to retreat on Friday to $1,637 after a alleged official intervention. This Tuesday, however, the financial price – which arises from the exchange of bonds – resumed its upward path and rose 1.9% to $ 1,669, despite the improvement in dollar securities that decompressed the country risk.

The third course of action is exchange hedging. According to Fernando Marull, the BCRA has already purchased US$16 billion in the year, met the goal with the IMF and has “fire power” for 2027. But in parallel sold US$4 billion in futures and US$10 billion in dollar-linked bonds. Thus, almost nine out of every 10 dollars purchased had a dollar of coverage as a mirror.

The calculation implies that, if they had not sold those instruments that offer investors a exchange insurance Faced with a devaluation, the Central Bank would have purchased only US$ 2,000 million. “The demand for coverage did not disappear, it deviated from the spot dollar. That is why the dollar remains calm, for now”said a report by FMyA, Marull’s consulting firm.

The situation worsened in the second half. While in the first the offer of the coarse harvest and placement of private debt (ON) allowed the BCRA to buy US$ 11,000 million with a coverage of US$ 1,200 million, During the second half of the year, purchases were reduced to US$ 5,000 million with a coverage of US$ 8,800 million.

This means that The demand for foreign currency was awakened and the electoral coverage started much earlier of the 2027 elections. Marull detected another change in demand of coverage: companies would no longer resort so much to futures and dollar-linked, but since August they began to do so with Bopreal 2027 and Bonar 2027.

The official strategy is not free and faces strong limitations. The other side of issuing fewer pesos or sterilizing them through debt placements implies sustain a contractionary monetary policy that prioritizes the stability of the dollar over reactivating the economy. Even so, short rates in pesos closed last week higher and the 6-day bond reached 190%.

“For now, In order not to raise the dollar, they let the interest rate run. But this has a limit because it strangles your credit in pesospublic solvency and the level of activity,” said Sebastián Menescaldi, associate partner of EcoGo. “The issue is that they are going to have to issue pesos to then be able to buy dollars to pay off the debt abroad, which is why they let the dollar run a little in recent days,” he warned.

On the other hand, the use of hedging to postpone the demand for dollars is not infinite either. As companies absorb Bopreales or Bonares, returns are compressed and will become negative. Today they yield between 2.72 and 3.73% annually, while dollar bonds range between 13.14 and 16.18%. “When that financial coverage runs out, the pressure will go to the spot”said the Marull consultant.

According to its estimates, the Government used US$22 billion in coverage in October 2025, including dollar-linked, dollar futures, foreign currency sales by the Treasury and Scott Bessent’s peso purchases. In October 2026, the coverage already amounts to US$ 17,000 million, considering the dual bonds. Meanwhile, EcoGo estimates that coverage via dollar-linked and futures is around US$14 billion, close to the highs recorded in August.