The way to supply the American shells to Israel goes through Turkey

“The road to Washington goes through Jerusalem” is a phrase that has become commonplace in the mouths of many people in the world for many years. In this framework, Turkey became the first Muslim country to recognize the State of Israel in 1949, under the shadow of its desire to get closer to Washington and finally join the NATO alliance in 1952. The goal behind the move was not Zionism, but rather a fear of Soviet expansion after World War II. , in the current crisis in Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s relationship with US President Joe Biden, it is clear that the same traditional phrase has long since become obsolete – and the latter is surprisingly finding its confidence in Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Animosity has existed between the two for many years, but their ties are based on mutual opportunism: Biden needed Erdogan’s approval for Sweden joining NATO, when the Turkish president wanted to upgrade his air force – after the previous president, Donald Trump, threw him out of the F-program 35 Following the purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems, Sweden’s addition to the alliance was unanimously approved as required, while Washington approved a $23 billion sale to Ankara of F-16 aircraft, missiles and bombs.

Shell prices have increased significantly in recent years

Now, the relationship between the two is getting even tighter, when according to reports in Turkey – Erdogan is expected to visit the White House on May 9. This will be the first visit of the president of Turkey to Washington, since the election of Biden. How is it possible that such a sensitive reception will take place in the White House about six months before the US presidential elections? The answer lies, among other things, in the prices of the shells that have risen significantly in recent years.

The 155 mm diameter is the artillery standard of the NATO countries and Israel, and therefore Secretary of State Anthony Blinken decided in December of last year to bypass Congress for the second time in about a month, in order to sell Israel about 60 thousand 155 mm shells and related equipment to the extent of about 147.5 million dollars, which corresponds to the Israeli artillery.This was a problematic sale both at the domestic American political level and vis-a-vis Ukraine.

Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, the US has supplied Ukraine with more than 2 million shells. The main problem is that, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, Kiev needs about 200,000 shells per month, but the American production rate is about 28,000 per month Moreover, Volodymyr Zelensky actually needs 155 mm shells, because NATO companies helped him with more than 300 cannons – but the standard is uniform. On the other hand, NATO estimates that Russia manages to get its hands on 4 million shells Every year, both on the basis of the local military industry that flourishes following the war and on the basis of the assistance of the supreme leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-un. This rate allows Russia to launch about 30,000 shells a day, five times the maximum capacity of Ukraine.

Shells with a diameter of 155 mm are about 0.6 meters long, and weigh about 45.3 kg. The 155 mm can be used in several ways: from carrying a powerful warhead to being activated by advanced precision systems. Since the outbreak of the war, the prices of 155 mm shells, according to senior NATO officials who spoke to the Wall Street Journal, have jumped from $2,100 per unit to $8,400.

The lack of supply is due to a continuous degeneration not only of the Israeli or European military industry, but also of the American one. Before the war, the US produced about 14,000 shells a month. Since then, Washington has invested $25 billion in increasing defense production output and in direct aid to Ukraine. Thus, the US production rate reached about 28,000 shells last November. The target is a production rate of about 80,000 shells per month in ten months, and about 100,000 shells at the end of 2025. At the same time, the European Union hopes that they will be able to triple the production rate by the end of 2024 to about 1.4 million shells per year.

The US is negotiating with Turkey for the purchase of shells and explosives

According to a report by Bloomberg this week, the US is conducting negotiations with Turkey for the purpose of purchasing shells and explosives, which will enable the speed of American production to be accelerated. The intended supplies are expected to include trinitrotoluene (TNT) and nitroguanidine, which is used as a high explosive to propel the shells. At the same time, according to sources who spoke with Bloomberg, Turkey is expected to become the top supplier of shells to the United States by the end of this year.

This tightening cooperation is also reflected in Turkish participation in the shell production chains on US soil. At the end of February, the Pentagon announced that it had signed a contract with GD (General Dynamics) to build three 155 mm production lines in Texas, with the participation of Turkish subcontractors. The start of production at the facility is expected to take place as early as this June.

According to sources who spoke with Bloomberg, the production lines of the Turkish defense company “Refcon” are expected to produce about 30% of all American-made 155 mm shells by next year. In addition, the Ministry of Defense purchased 116,000 shells from the “Arka Defense” company. the Turkish, which are expected to be received this year, when discussions on supplies for next year are also on the agenda.

This is Erdogan’s attempt to continue playing “on all levels”: in the Russia-Ukraine war, to receive S-400 batteries from Russia, while he supplies drones to Ukraine – and assists the US in increasing the rate of artillery production against Moscow. In the War of Iron Swords, he criticizes Israel, but shows not even signs that he intends to comply with the demands of the Islamists in Turkey to sever trade ties with Jerusalem.

On top of that, 155mm shells may be added that will arrive in Israel either by a circuitous route as they are through the USA, or through the hands of Turkish workers on US soil. All the more so that the conversion clause (the ability to convert aid in dollars to shekels for purchases of Amalah in Israel) out of the US annual aid amounting to 3.3 billion dollars is getting smaller starting this year. Thus, Israel will be required in the coming years to purchase even more from American companies, including 155mm shells used by the IDF in the war against Hamas, Erdogan’s friends.