There has been war in Sudan for a year. This has caused the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. Experts create nightmare scenarios.
Now Ukraine is also getting involved. At the end of February, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence confirmed that Ukrainian special forces were active in Sudan. They would hunt Russian fighters there. The enemy should be “destroyed” in every conceivable place in the world.
For a year now, Sudan has been the scene of a war that has turned the second largest country in sub-Saharan Africa into a field of rubble. At the same time, Sudan is a geopolitical playground. Many countries pursue their interests, most of them not in a way that promotes peace: neighboring Egypt, six other concerned neighboring countries, nearby Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates. The USA and the European Union. And Russia and Ukraine.
Despite the geopolitical crush, the war receives little media attention. This is due to the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. And the complexity of the conflict. The main warring parties are the regular Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a ruthless and well-armed militia that numbers up to 100,000 fighters.
The dimensions of war are huge. In March, the American State Department described it as “the world’s largest humanitarian crisis.” More than eight million Sudanese (out of a total of 45 million) have been displaced. More than a million people have fled across national borders. The state has collapsed. Only around a quarter of all health facilities are still functioning.
Despite the scale, there are currently no peace efforts in which all important actors are involved. Most states pursue narrow vested interests – Russia, for example, smuggles gold out of Sudan and wants to continue doing so.
The lack of a peace process is dangerous. The war in Sudan has the potential to completely destabilize a huge, already volatile region: from the Horn of Africa to the weak Sahel states and to the Mediterranean. Experts speak of a new Libya or Somalia – only with even more explosive potential.
Why Sudan is important
Sudan lies at the crossroads of several conflict regions, between the Arab world and sub-Saharan Africa. It is part of the Sahel region, where the military has carried out a series of coups in recent years and where jihadist groups have wrested huge swathes of land from state control. Sudan is also close to the Horn of Africa, where one war has followed another for decades.
The country has a long coastline on the Red Sea, through which a large part of global goods traffic passes and which is of great strategic importance for many countries. The Nile also flows through Sudan and tens of millions of people depend on its water. Egypt, its neighbor downstream, is particularly closely following what is happening in Sudan.
Sudan is also rich in resources, such as gold. The country has enormous agricultural potential. Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia have bought up large areas of land in order to use them, for example, for growing animal feed.
Sudan’s history is traumatic. Millions of people died in several civil wars and numerous military coups. The Islamist military dictator Omar al-Bashir ruled and ruined the country from 1989 to 2019. Among other things, he offered refuge to Usama bin Laden in the 1990s when he set up the terrorist organization al-Qaeda. Bashir fell in 2019 after mass protests. But the transition to civilian rule failed. The country’s two powerful armies, the National Armed Forces and the RSF, did not want to give up their economic privileges or impunity for past crimes. And finally they turned against each other.
Who gets involved in Sudan and how?
The strategic importance of Sudan explains why so many states are involved in the country. They rarely do it in a way that could bring peace to the country.
Die United Arab Emirate have played a very influential role in Sudan in recent years, including by pledging billions of dollars in aid to the military-dominated interim government after the fall of Bashir. The rich Gulf state is continually expanding its influence in Africa, with the Red Sea as its focus. At the end of 2022, the Emirates signed a $6 billion deal with Sudan to build a new port.
In the war, the Emirates sided with the RSF. According to UN rapporteurs, among other things, they supply them with hidden weapons supplies, which the Emirates deny. The Emirates are also economically important for the RSF and its leader, a general known by the nickname Hemeti. The RSF export – or smuggle – large amounts of gold from the country, most of it via Dubai.
Egypt has a long history with Sudan; until independence in 1956, Sudan was under the control of Egypt and Great Britain. The armies of Egypt and Sudan are still closely linked to this day, with the Egyptian supporting the Sudanese with money and material. Egypt’s military government fears the complete collapse of Sudan’s state. Almost half a million Sudanese have already fled to the neighboring country to the north.
Russia Like many other states, is interested in the Red Sea. In 2020, Moscow received a commitment to build a naval base on the Sudanese coast. The interim government in Khartoum temporarily stopped the project the following year. Like the Emirates, Russia is linked to the RSF. The paramilitary group Wagner, together with the RSF, controls gold mines and smuggles gold out of the country. Some experts believe gold exports from Sudan helped Russia cope with economic sanctions imposed after the attack on Ukraine.
Die USA and the EU fear the shock waves that the collapse of Sudan could trigger. For example, that jihadist groups could spread. There are fears in the EU that some of the Sudanese displaced people could head for the Mediterranean.
The list of countries involved is much longer. Iran has recently been supplying armed drones and other military equipment to the Sudanese army. Saudi Arabia has ties to both warring parties and has tried to broker ceasefires together with the US. Neighboring countries, including the fragile one South Sudan, which seceded from the north in 2011, are watching the situation with concern.
What’s next?
It is unlikely that either side will achieve a complete military victory. The country is divided into two spheres of influence. The RSF controls most of the areas west of the Nile, the army controls the east. The heaviest fighting is currently taking place in the capital Khartoum and in the Gezira region southeast of Khartoum.
The RSF were stronger on the battlefield for months and recorded territorial gains. In recent months, however, the army has had some successes, thanks, among other things, to Iranian drones. The army is also trying to recruit existing and new militias to fight the RSF.
It is likely that the situation will become even more confusing due to the large number of armed groups. Even the RSF are not homogeneous – and difficult for their leaders to control. Everywhere the RSF advanced, displaced people reported looting and rape.
Even if one of the two sides wins militarily, it is unlikely that Sudan will find peace. The country is vast, ethnically fragmented, and flooded with weapons. Both the RSF and the army are hated in large parts of the country.
Peace efforts have so far failed primarily because either one of the parties to the conflict or important external actors was missing. In the Saudi city of Jeddah, the United States and Saudi Arabia negotiated ceasefires and access for humanitarian organizations with the parties to the conflict. Talks in Saudi Arabia are expected to resume soon. But they suffer from the fact that the United Arab Emirates, which plays a key role in the war, is not involved.
A number of other peace initiatives have made little progress so far. Efforts by Igad (Intergovernmental Authority on Development), a regional organization in the Horn of Africa, are being weakened by the fact that Ethiopia and Kenya are contesting leadership roles.
Many Sudan experts believe that the US has an important role to play – because it has relationships with almost all major players. However, most experts also believe that the USA has not acted decisively enough so far.
And if peace efforts don’t make progress?
Sudan experts are drawing up gloomy scenarios in the event that the situation in Sudan continues to spiral out of control. The think tank International Crisis Group, for example, writes: “A Sudan without state control would open the door to all sorts of rebel leaders and militias, including jihadists. Instability could spread to the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, North Africa and across the Red Sea. At the same time, even more migrants could flee to already overburdened neighboring states, dare to make the dangerous journey across the Mediterranean or to the Gulf states and the Levant or even to the USA.
This is an extreme scenario – but still plausible. Because the war in Sudan receives so little attention, its explosive geopolitical potential is underestimated. Perhaps this will change in the medium term and better coordinated peace efforts will persuade the warring parties to engage in serious negotiations. But for now the situation could worsen further. To the suffering of the civilian population. Humanitarian organizations are currently warning that Sudan is facing the world’s largest hunger crisis.