Iran tried to attack the State of Israel on April 14 with 185 unmanned aerial vehicles, 36 cruise missiles and 110 ballistic missiles, but came out of this attack mostly embarrassed – after no less than 99% of the means launched did not hit their targets.
This happened through the integration of Israel’s multi-layered defense systems, fighter jets and other means that it operated with its partners the USA, the UK and Jordan. This successful defensive operation illustrated how lethal the Iranian-made UAVs that Russia operates in Ukraine are not against Western systems of the same quality high However, the world market does not estimate that the April 14 event will curb the popularity of Iranian-made UAVs.
Those who choose means made in Iran do not buy them because of their quality, but because of their price. The cost of the Shahad 136, which is considered a poor imitation of the European roving armament produced by the Aerospace Industry, is estimated at about 30 thousand dollars. For the sake of comparison, those who choose Haroop, which is considered one of the best in the category in the world, have to part with about 700 thousand dollars for a single item. At the same time, it is required to be approved by the Defense Export Control Division (AFI) at the Ministry of Defense. That is, a regulatory limit designed to ensure that Israeli-made measures do not end up in the hands of those in Jerusalem who do not want such a thing to happen.
Along with the price and regulation which are significantly less problematic in the case of the Ayatollah regime, Fabian Hintz, research fellow for defense and military issues at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told “Breaking Defense” that most of the countries that may be interested in Iranian-made UAVs do not intend to use them against Enemies like the USA and Israel. “Therefore, the ability of advanced enemies, such as the US and Israel, to intercept them worries them less. The Iranian-made UAVs have proven themselves well.”
These have proven themselves well in arenas such as Ukraine in the last year and a half or earlier in events such as the attack on the facilities of the Saudi national oil company “Aramco” in September 2019, but of course not against Israel. According to the Iranian media, the Revolutionary Guards, the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and the Houthi rebels sent two models of roving weapons to Israel: the Shahad 131 (known in Russia as “Gran 1”), which has a range of about 1,000-700 km, and the larger version – Shahad 136, which has a range of about 2,000-1,000 km.
As a UAV that the Iranians at least did not declare that the operator was the Mohajer 6 attack drone. A common issue for the martyrs and the Mohajer is the Western-made components. An analysis by Ukrainian intelligence recently found that about 77% of the components of the Iranian Shahad 136 UAV – the main model that Iran launched at Israel – are made by 13 American companies. The Ukrainian report also found that the Shahad 136 contains at least 35 components that were created in Europe. , the British research institute CAR, which examined four models of Iranian drones, found that 82% of their components were made in the USA.
In the field of arms trade, the borders are blurring
From the Israeli point of view, it has been clear for over a year that in Jerusalem the supplies of international Iranian drones are closely monitored – even if they are not for the pro-Iranian militias. At the Munich Security Conference, Defense Minister Yoav Galant said in February of last year that “Iran supplies drones with a range of 1,000 kilometers, to countries in Eastern Europe, such as Belarus, and in the past it also did so in South America, Venezuela.” Beyond that, he said on that occasion that Iran is holding talks for the sale of lethal weapons with about 50 different countries.
A rather surprising client that came to light after Gallant’s words is Sudan. The army led by General Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan has been facing a civil war for the past year against the “Quick Support” militia led by al-Burhan’s former deputy, Muhammad Hamdan Degalo. Degalo’s militia inflicted severe blows on Al-Burhan, who made headlines in Israel thanks to his involvement in the Abraham Accords, until Iran entered the story.
According to a Reuters story earlier this month, Iranian-made UAVs have led to a diversion – and a halt to the advance of the Rapid Support Militia. This creates an interesting situation, because al-Burhan has an excellent relationship with Ukraine, while Iran is a critical UAV supplier to Russia. That is, in the world of the arms trade, the borders are very blurred.
Moreover, the current civil war in Sudan is not the first internal conflict in Africa in general and Sudan in particular that Iran is taking advantage of. In 2008, Omar al-Bashir’s regime deployed Iranian Ababil 3 drones against the rebels in Darfur. Then, about three years ago, the Ayatollahs’ regime began supplying drones to the Ethiopian army for the war against the Tigrayan rebels.
The country that gains a source of livelihood through Iranian production
As far as the production and assembly of UAVs is concerned, long before the establishment of factories in Russia to “feed” the invasion of Ukraine, Iran adopted an interesting method of decentralizing the facilities. In this way, it makes it very difficult to neutralize the production chains. Already in 2010, with the assistance of the then Venezuelan president, Hogue established and Chavez a facility for assembling a Mohajer 2 sample collection drone. The close cooperation between Caracas and Tehran has also been maintained under Nicolás Maduro, who has ruled the country since 2013.
The Iranians also have UAV production and assembly facilities in Syria, but a more intriguing destination where in May 2022 they inaugurated an Ababil 2 collection UAV production facility is the tiny Central Asian country – Tajikistan. Although the Tajiks are mostly Sunni, the connection between them and Tehran stems from the fact that they are a people of Iranian origin and speak a Persian dialect.
Tajikistan has been led for 32 years under the same centralized leader, Emomali Rahmon, who, if he determines that an Iranian plant in the heart of the country is the right step – it is impossible to challenge him. As part of his basket of considerations, in this case he places his economy at the expense of security. The GDP per capita of Tajikistan is only about 1,200 dollars, the lowest among the five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan). For the purpose of comparison, according to estimates, the GDP per capita of the five Central Asian countries, including Tag ‘Yakistan, stood at about 16.4 thousand dollars at the end of 2023 – about 13.5 times that of Tajikistan alone.
Rahmon has had difficulty for years in increasing the number of jobs in the country, which leaves poverty rates high. In an attempt to find a living, no less than close to a million Tajiks out of 9 million citizens, make a living outside the country. The result is that, according to World Bank estimates, about 20-30% of Tajikistan’s GDP comes from income outside the country.
In conclusion, the Ababil 2 plant is a win-win situation in terms of the Ayatollah regime in Tehran and the Rahmon regime in Dushanbe: the Iranians gain a production facility in the heart of a centralized country in Central Asia that would be a difficult operational and diplomatic task to damage, while the Tajiks receive sources of livelihood for the poor citizens and probably Ababil as well 2 for the Tajikistan Army.
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