At the end of March 2024, the Mexican economy reached 10 consecutive quarters of growth. Economic analysts predict a marginal advance in gross domestic product (GDP) of between 0.1 and 0.5 percent in that period compared to the advance of just 0.1 in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) will publish today the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first three months of the year.
At the sector level, Banorte’s executive director of economic analysis and market strategy, Juan Carlos Alderete, foresees greater strength in services, with an advance of one percent in which seasonal and cyclical factors drive them.
The industry would have -0.4 percent, with a drag from mining, a mixed performance in construction and some resilience in manufacturing. Finally, primary activities would be negative again, with a contraction of 0.8 percent, with persistent challenges on the climate front weighing on production levels.
Analysts are awaiting the initial estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2024, where a slow pace is anticipated due to what was observed in the global indicator of economic activity during the first two months.
considered Eduardo Suárez, economic specialist at Scotiabank.
The fundamentals will probably remain strong, although a moderation could be seen in some components due to the temporary suspension of the delivery of resources from social programs. However, there are areas that will probably benefit from the election day of June 2.
In its annual comparison, Mexico’s economy grew 2.1 percent in the first quarter of the year compared to the same period in 2023.
The Bank of Mexico will publish the results of the expectations survey in which the consensus will slightly modify the growth expectation downwards, and upwards inflation and the expected rate at the end of the year.