Because of the Ukraine war, North Korea went from being an isolated country to becoming an important partner for Russia through arms deliveries. China grudgingly accepts it. The big question is whether North Korea will become more aggressive or more peaceful.
What’s happened: China is taking the offensive in its North Korea policy. In mid-April, the number three Chinese leadership, Chairman of the National People’s Congress Zhao Leji, traveled to the North Korean capital Pyongyang.
Officially, not much was made public about Zhao’s conversations. But Victor Cha, Korea chair at the American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said at an event last week that it was probably about preparations for a summit between North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un and China’s leader Xi Jinping be.
The well-known North Korea expert explained that the Chinese are “upset” by the rapprochement between North Korea and Russia, which began with North Korea supplying weapons for Russia’s war against Ukraine. Now they are apparently worried about losing too much influence.
The reason: Russian President Vladimir Putin promised Kim a return visit in March for his trip to Russia in September 2023. If Putin visits North Korea, he is likely to negotiate Russia’s return for North Korea’s weapons aid. According to American experts, more than ten thousand containers filled with artillery ammunition and rockets have already been delivered to the war zone from North Korea.
That’s why it’s important: North Korea is a self-proclaimed nuclear power and declared South Korea its main enemy earlier this year. Kim has the power to trigger crises or wars. Because he is sure of his partners China and Russia. However, the Ukraine war is shaking up the balance of power in the alliance triangle.
Beijing sees itself as the patron saint of the Kim family’s hereditary East Asian dictatorship. China has been North Korea’s most important supplier, especially since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990. But the war in Ukraine changed that.
After Russia’s attack, the conflict between the USA and its allies as well as its partners China and Russia intensified. Previously isolated countries such as Iran and North Korea are benefiting from the tensions because they are suddenly interesting to Russia as weapons suppliers.
Kim seized the opportunity to free his country from the UN sanctions regime after the collapse of his summit diplomacy with US President Donald Trump and three years of self-imposed Corona isolation. Even John Bolton, Trump’s former security adviser, says: “Kim Jong Un has proven that he is a better politician than his father and perhaps even almost as good as his grandfather Kim Il Sung.”
The founder of the North Korean hereditary dictatorship, Kim Il Sung, had repeatedly managed to play off the two protective powers, China and then the Soviet Union, against each other in order to increase North Korea’s benefits and scope for action. Kim Jong Un has now “led North Korea out of its dependence on China,” said Bolton.
Kim is aware of this. As early as the end of 2023, North Korea’s leader spoke bluntly of an “expansion of the foreign policy sphere” in order to maximize national interests. Western analysts give him a chance of success – on the one hand because of Russia’s gratitude for the North Korean arms aid, and on the other hand because of China’s North Korea policy.
Frederic Spohr, head of the office of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation of the German FDP, which is active in North Korea, warns: “In principle, the country now has freedom for stronger provocations.” A terror warning from the government there at the beginning of May made it clear how explosive the situation in South Korea is perceived to be. She warned of North Korean attacks on South Korean diplomats in embassies in Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam and in consulates in the Chinese city of Shenyang and the eastern Siberian city of Vladivostok.
The open question is whether North Korea will use the freedom for provocations or would rather stay quiet in the short term to concentrate on making money from the Ukraine war. For example, in 2023 North Korea tested fewer missiles than before. “That could be because North Korea prefers to sell weapons rather than test them,” says Spohr.
What’s next? Russia’s role as an enabler: In any case, the power for provocation is growing. Russia’s attack on Ukraine was “the best thing that could have happened to Kim Jong Un,” says North Korea expert Cha. Because suddenly North Korea is in its strongest position in decades.
Russia pays arms suppliers with food, energy supplies and technical assistance. The US government announced at the beginning of May that Russia had now even ignored the oil embargo against North Korea. Russia has already exported more than the 500,000 barrels of oil per year to North Korea permitted by the UN Security Council. In March alone there were said to be 165,000 barrels.
How exactly Putin helps his partner militarily is unknown. According to South Korean intelligence, Russia is said to have provided technical advice to help it successfully launch spy satellites in 2023. According to experts, North Korea is also interested in modern armaments or help in building nuclear submarines.
However, American security circles assume that China has received assurances from Russia that it will not support the North Korean nuclear program. Western experts already estimate that North Korea has at least several dozen nuclear weapons.
At the same time, Russia has undermined the sanctions regime with which the UN wants to force North Korea to stop its nuclear weapons program and missile tests. “The regime no longer has to fear new sanctions from the Security Council,” says Spohr.
In particular, the dissolution of a council of experts at the end of April after a Russian veto in the UN Security Council was a setback, said Spohr. Because the sanctions could now hardly be monitored – and North Korea could now potentially open up additional sales markets. US government officials have already warned against a revival of old ties between North Korea and Iran. At the end of April, North Korea sent a business delegation led by Foreign Trade Minister Yun Jung Ho to Iran.
What’s next? China supports the “embarrassing uncle”: Spohr is of the opinion that Russia’s growing influence on North Korea is viewed critically in China. Gabriel Wildau, China expert at the American strategy consultant Teneo Intelligence, sees Beijing’s attitude a little more nuanced: “On the whole, China sees North Korea as a kind of embarrassing uncle that it cannot disown.”
On the one hand, North Korea’s violations of international law and aggressive nuclear armament are a burden for China. The sanctions violations had a negative impact on China’s reputation as North Korea’s protective power, says Wildau.
On the other hand, North Korea’s arms deliveries to Russia would be inconvenient for China, says the South Korean Asan Institute for Policy Studies in a strategy paper. Because they provoked greater military cooperation between South Korea, Japan and the USA. The three countries have decided to establish a trilateral alliance. Now South Korea is even considering working with the defense alliance between the USA, Australia and Great Britain.
However, it suits Beijing that North Korea supplies Russia with weapons. “China has reached the limit of Western sanctions, but has not exceeded it by supplying weapons for war,” says Wildau. But it wants to prevent Russia from defeat.
Ultimately, China supports North Korea “with gritted teeth” and absorbs criticism from the international community, says Wildau. North Korea has “an indispensable function” for China’s leadership as a buffer to US troops in South Korea. In addition, Beijing has no veto over arms deliveries, as even China’s influence on North Korea is limited.
This is what we mean: North Korea has no real friends, only useful partners. For decades, the regime has tried to achieve as much independence as possible from its larger neighbors. At the same time, the ruler Kim knows that neither China nor Russia will abandon him.
This means that North Korea’s leadership thinks primarily about its own advantage. At the moment, Kim’s decision between provocation and short-term calm depends primarily on the overall geopolitical weather situation for North Korea expert Go Myong Hyun from the Asan Institute.
If Trump’s chances of winning the US presidential election increase over incumbent Joe Biden’s, he believes provocations are possible. The calculation: Kim wants to help the former president win in order to negotiate with the USA later. Because Kim is betting that Trump still thinks fondly of his summit meetings with him five years ago.
Kim could also torpedo a rapprochement between China and the USA or a decline in Russian support for his country, for example through nuclear weapons tests. He could hope that China will move closer to North Korea again in the ensuing crisis.
North Korea expert Go expects less aggression if relations between China and Russia remain stable and Biden’s chances of re-election increase. “Then North Korea could neither engage in dialogue nor carry out major provocations in 2024 and could concentrate on military support for Russia and perfecting its nuclear capabilities,” said the expert.
In the short term, this would probably be the preferred scenario for many countries. The problem remains, however, that North Korea’s military strength could also grow significantly. The Korean peninsula will remain a potential hotspot for war for the foreseeable future.