Trade overview: current reports, trends, indices, stock prices, bonds, foreign exchange and commodities and analyst recommendations
10:39
European stock markets are currently trading in a positive trend. The FTSE rises by 0.4%, the DAX adds 0.3% to its value and the French CAC adds 0.6% to its value.
Macro Europe: Industrial production in Germany fell by 0.4% in March at a monthly rate, slightly below the early expectation of -0.6%.
08:34
This morning in Asia, the main indices are trading in a negative trend. The Nikkei falls by 1.5%, the Hang Seng loses its value by 0.4%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange falls by a similar rate and the Kospi index rises by 0.1%.
In the US, futures are trading slightly lower.
Last night (Tuesday) on Wall Street, the main indices closed in a mixed trend. The Nasdaq fell 0.1%, the S&P 500 added about 0.1% and the Dow Jones rose by a similar amount.
Last night it was reported that TikTok is suing the United States government in an effort to stop the enforcement of a bill passed last month, which seeks to force the app’s Chinese owner (ByteDance) to sell TikTok’s operations in the US, otherwise the app will be banned for distribution and use throughout the country.
The lawsuit, filed Tuesday in the US Court of Appeals, claims that the bill, the Protecting Americans from Controlled Applications by a Foreign Adversary Act, violates constitutional protections of free speech. The company argues that invoking national security concerns is not sufficient reason to restrict free speech, and that The burden is on the federal government to prove that the restriction is justified. It has not met that burden, the lawsuit said.
The chip giant Nvidia traded last night with decreases of about 2% after the billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller announced that he had cut his investment in the chip giant. Druckenmiller explained his decision by saying that the artificial intelligence boom may end soon. “We closed some positions in March, I just need a break. We had great success, many things we identified as opportunities in the market proved to be correct,” the billionaire told CNBC.
also Dark gathered interest after announcing new models of its tablets – iPad Air and iPad Pro. Tim Cook, the company’s CEO, commented on the news and emphasized: “This is the biggest day for the iPad since its launch.” The new iPad models are the first that Apple has released since October 2022, and this is the longest time that Apple has gone without updating the iPad product line since its launch in 2011.
The new model of the iPad Pro will be the most expensive and the most advanced and will come in two sizes, an 11-inch model and a 13-inch model, Apple said. The company emphasized that this is the thinnest tablet ever, which comes in at 5.1 mm thick. The price of the smaller iPad Pro will start at $999 and the price of the larger 13-inch model will start at $1299.
At the same time, Apple adds that the iPad Pro will connect to the Magic Keyboard, which will attach the tablet to the keyboard and trackpad in order to simulate a laptop experience just like a MacBook.
In the American debt market, government bond yields are trading slightly higher this morning. The 10-year bond was recorded at a level of 4.47% and the yield on the two-year bond is 4.83%.
In the commodities market, oil prices are trading slightly lower – $78 per barrel of American oil and $82 per barrel of Brent. Gil Befman, Bank Leumi’s Chief Economist, predicts that the US will proceed with caution regarding the implementation of sanctions on Iran, in order not to risk a sharp increase in the price of oil, certainly in an election year. and satellite data, and identify the entities that assist in these flows. The question is whether the US is ready to enforce the sanctions and live with the consequences in an election year, when it will bear the risk of rising fuel prices – a politically unpopular move,” Befman wrote.
In the macro sector, last night (Tuesday), the Central Bank of Australia left the interest rate unchanged at a level of 4.35% for the fourth time in a row, in accordance with early estimates. Ofer Klein, head of the economics and research division at Harel Insurance and Finance, commented on the announcement: “In the press release it was stated that while inflation continues to moderate, it is done at a slower pace than expected. In the first quarter, inflation dropped to 3.6% (4% core inflation) and in the upcoming forecasts the bank does not expect it to return to the limits The target is before the second half of 2025. The bank indicated that the interest rate path necessary to bring inflation to the target in a reasonable time is difficult to meet, therefore the bank’s monetary committee does not rule out a change in the interest rate in any direction (yes, even up). In our opinion, although the bank does not rule out an increase in the interest rate, we We believe that the bank’s next move will be downward, although we won’t see it materialize before the end of the year.”
Today (Wednesday) no significant macro data are expected to be published, with the exception of the industrial production data in Germany.
Tomorrow (Thursday) the interest rate decision in the UK is expected to be published, when the early forecasts estimate that the interest rate will remain unchanged. Klein estimates that the investors’ focus will be on the individual votes of each committee member, and whether the voices calling for the lowering of the interest rate will increase (1 out of 9 in the previous decision).
The month of April closed on Wall Street with a negative return after a sequence of 5 positive months, and investors are asking themselves the question that has become a Street slogan: Should we sell in May? The claim is that the summer months, from May to October, bring with them a lower return in the indices compared to the other months.
But analysts at the Blackrock investment house wrote at the end of the week that there are 3 reasons for investors to stay in the stock market in May. First, the alignment of investors with the Federal Reserve (Fed) that the interest rate will remain high for a long time, an expectation that is now priced in the market, when the contracts expect only 2 interest rate cuts until the end of the year.
The second reason is that the employment market is starting to show signs of weakness, something that may reduce the pressure of wage increases and moderate inflation in the future, a positive thing for the markets.
The third reason is an increase in the repeat purchases (buybacks) of the companies. Apple increased its acquisitions to a record $110 billion, and other large and small companies such as Nvidia, Broadcom, Disney, Uber, Meta and others announced their own acquisitions.
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