Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered on December 27, 2024 by a Telescope of the Atlas Network in Chile, has generated concern in the scientific community for its possible impact with the Earth on December 22, 2032. With an estimated diameter of between 40 and 90 meters and a collision probability of 2.3 %, according to the most recent calculations, the spatial object remains under strict international observation. The question that arises now is: in which countries could it fall if the trajectory would lead to an impact?
Preliminary astronomer analyzes indicate that, if a collision occurs, the potential impact strip covers from the east of the Pacific Ocean to southern Asia, including parts of South America and Africa. Specifically, the most exposed areas include Colombia, Venezuela and northern Brazil, as well as center of Africa, India and Myanmar. Although a large part of the estimated trajectory is on the sea, it also involves densely populated areas.
An impact on the mainland could have devastating effects at the regional level, with an energy equivalent to several TNT megatons. On the other hand, if the asteroid exploded in the atmosphere, as happened in the Tunguska event in 1908, it could generate an expansive wave capable of sweeping thousands of square kilometers of vegetation and buildings. If it fell into the ocean, it could generate tsunamis that would affect coastal countries in South America, Africa or Asia.
Experts emphasize that impact probabilities are still low and that the trajectory could change as new observations are obtained. However, the fact that probability has increased in recent months instead of decreasing maintains active alert in the astronomical community.
In the event that the threat persists, the planetary defense could resort to mitigation strategies such as asteroid deviation through a kinetic impact, similar to NASA’s Dart mission in 2022. Meanwhile, international organizations such as the UN have intensified surveillance and continue to monitor the object in search of more precise data to refine its trajectory and evaluate real risks.
Despite uncertainty, scientists maintain confidence that continuous monitoring will discard danger in the coming years. Until then, asteroid 2024 YR4 remains one of the highest priorities in the planetary defense agenda.